Rice on the Mics

Day Late, But Not a Dollar Short

• Ian • Season 1 • Episode 39

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New York sports lit up like a switchboard this week, and we dig straight into the chaos. The Giants finally pulled the plug after another blown lead, and we map what that decision really says about the Jackson Dart bet, the draft capital math, and the kind of coach this roster actually needs. Over in Florham Park, a split city wrestles with Aaron Glenn’s media blackout while the locker room rallies, Garrett Wilson hits IR, and we call the verdict on Justin Fields with Tyrod Taylor hovering. We also break down the Thursday night cover and why a division dog on a short week was more than a vibe—it was value.

Zooming out, we rewind Jonathan Taylor’s Berlin takeover and the AFC shakeups that followed, then circle our Week 11 targets: Bengals-Steelers script warfare, Chiefs-Broncos as vibes vs structure, and a Lions-Eagles identity check that could swing NFC seeding. On the hardwood, the Knicks’ offense hums under Mike Brown’s pace-without-panic blueprint, but Brunson’s ankle turns the volume down. We talk redistribution without your engine, playoff-proof habits, and why “show me in May” is the right tension for a contender that wants its style to survive whistle-swallowing.

Baseball ties it together with MVP and Cy Young clarity: Judge and Otani’s value in plain numbers, and why the offseason is about making your star matter in October. We examine the Cy Young economics that separate windows from mirages and argue for Pittsburgh to keep and pay Paul Skenes. Then it’s fantasy triage—avoid landmines, buy usage, stash roles—and a betting card built on pace, yards after catch, and script-locked volume, including two totals we love and a Jalen Warren prop. Tap play, hit follow, and drop a quick review to boost the show. What move would you make first: hire the hotshot coach, bench the QB, or pay the ace?

SPEAKER_00:

Eli siis mun. Carlin Killer woke you up and Jonathan Taylor fucking back in. Coffee in one hand, phone in the other, 244 yards and three TDs from JT overseas. Danny Times or Indiana Jones, as he's now known, was running point like it was a seven on seven. If your fantasy day was settled before brunch, either you were peacocking all day, or you were mapping out a 4 p.m. bar crawl. What's going on? I am Ian Rice. This is episode 39 of Rice on the Mics, and we'll get into the Giants first. A ball's out after another blown double-digit lead. The mic check poles lit it up. Most of you said long overdue, but I got a thoughtful note from a non-Giants fan who said he shouldn't have been fired at all. We'll unpack that and we'll get into what type of coach you guys actually want next. Culture guy, old vet, specialist, or even a hot young stud. Jets fans, come on in and have a seed too. Garrett Wilson to the IR, Aaron Glenn's injury blackout has the city split. Half of you said it protects the players, the other half said it has a bad look here. We'll touch on that. Rewind the Browns rock fight. And talk about Justin Fields' leash with Tyrod warming up in the shadows. And yes, Thursday Night Football is going on as I'm recording this, and my pick is already on the board. Trust me, I've got plenty of thoughts. Hoops-wise, the offense has been humming for the Knicks, but after the Magic Loss, the Knicks are now 7-1 in the garden. And now it's a grade one ankle screen for Brunson. He's out this Friday and day-to-day moving forward. The vibe check came back as show me the offensive main, just edging out the undefeated swagger. So we'll thread that needle once we get there. For my baseball heads, stick around. The votes are in for MVP and Cy Young. I'll let you know who won what, plus what it means for the off-season chessboard. Then we'll end the plane with fantasy. A couple lineup landmines to avoid, a few buy lows to steal, and the gambling segment, rolling the dice with rice. Two totals I like, a prop bet that I love, and both local games. And yes, the heater has been real after that 5-17 start. We're now looking at 22 for 23. So lock in, turn the volume up, tell a friend to pull up a chair. It's time to talk some sports. Let's do it to it. Tranquility base here. The Eagle has landed. Alright, well, let's dive right into it and start with the major headline this week. And we'll start with the Giants because the Giants did the New York Jet thing. And that is fire the coach midseason and hope for the best. Dayball is now gone after another blown double-digit lead. And our Mug Check poll this week backed it up. Long overdue, took it by a landslide. But I uh I did get a DM from a non-Giants fan that actually said I should have included a shouldn't have been fired option on the poll. And I asked him, I said, So you're saying that Dayball shouldn't have been fired? And he said, and I quote, that the firing was premature. And then he went on to say that Dayball pushed his chips all in on Dart, and it actually worked out. And Scatabow flashed before he got hurt, and with neighbors on ice, that there is a core if you can bridge it right. His biggest gripe was that they should have never let Russ see the field again, that they didn't go to Jameis when Dart went down. And now we get the answer key in real time. Russell Wilson is now benched, and Jameis is getting the start this week since Jackson Dart is out with concussion. So we'll see if there's any gas left in that tank. We'll see if uh he's planning on eating any W's anytime soon, or he throws for three touchdowns but four interceptions. Also, be honest. How would this fan base feel if Dart never came in and Wilson just continued to play this whole time? I mean, you're two and eight, so the record is probably the same, maybe worse, but if he doesn't play, all the hope that he has given you moving forward for this franchise is null and void. And that's what matters here going forward. The moral victories, I guess. The hope for the future, the hope. Look, you find yourself in the opposite position of the Jets. No draft picks because you traded some away to go get the kid, but it looks like you found the kid. Found the guy that's gonna lead your franchise for the next, you know, hopefully 10-15 years. As for what's next, coaching wise, well, that's a whole nother story. Uh our poll that we put out leaned towards that you guys want a young hotshot over the quote unquote culture guy. So basically that tells me that you guys want edge and ideas, not a resume, which hasn't worked for the Giants as of late. Joe Judge, Brian Dable, you know, they were all the new young hot shots. If a guy like Mike Tomlin opens up, you take him. Kafka holds the wheel for now, and if things look good, there could be a chance that he keeps the job, but this team is still a mess. There's no kicker. The defense continues to look like it quits in the fourth, which, by the way, the defensive coordinator was a day bull guy. And for God's sake, someone has to teach Jackson Dart that every rushing play isn't going to win him the Super Bowl. They've been in just about every game, too, which is like the most maddening thing if you're a Giants fan. Like, at least when the Jets get blown out, they get blown out. Or they keep the box score close, but it was never as close as it finished. Giant fans have been in every game. Realistically, they might they might be five and five if they held on to some of these games. Maybe even six and four. The division is terrible. We could be mid-November talking about the Giants have a chance at the division, but instead we're two and seven and going nowhere fast. But Giant fans, keep the lights on. There is hope. The schedule going forward is brutal. So, you know, take it with a grain of salt. But right now you should be looking for the microwins. While also being able to see the forest through the trees and knowing that you might have your quarterback of the future, and you hope he develops more and more and more. Now, on to the Jetsies. Jets time. And even with the two-game win streak, it is not pretty. Garrett Wilson, after he just got back, goes down in the Browns game, and now is officially landed on the IR. A real gut punch because at the deadline, they weren't just active in selling their players, they were active in making some moves for the future, and they did their best to bolster this wide receiver room at least a little bit. I mean, you finally added some actual NFL talent with John Michi and Adonai Mitchell. The problem is it's not like Justin Fields has any idea how to throw a guy open or even actually even throw the ball. But I do wish we got to see a month of that trio together. Look, worst case, those two would have taken some distraction off Garrett, who has shown that he has elite separation, and maybe the passing game could have turned into something, but we won't know till end of December or the new year when Garrett comes back, if he even comes back for the year. Now, as for the coach, well, it does look like these guys are starting to buy in to whatever he's selling. After that Browns win, I saw a locker room video of A. G addressing the team and giving out game balls and hyping the boys up, and when they all gave their speeches, the team couldn't look happier or speak about the process in a better light and how they're all going through the same thing together. It's amazing the deodorant that winning provides. I mean, this team is two and nine, two and eight now, but after the win, the guys came together like they just won the biggest game of their life, and the media was happy, and this, that, and the other. Which my next talking point, Aaron Glenn in the media. Glenn at the podium has been a nightmare, to say the least. He's doing this injury blackout and a vendetta against the media. So I ran a poll, put it out, and you guys were kind of split on it. Half of you voted protects the players, and it barely edged out that it's a bad look in New York. And both things can be true. Look, I understand being Bill Parcells. I understand being Bill Belichick, going that route of keeping everything close to the vest and not giving anyone any bulletin board material. But that really only truly works when you're winning games. And in this media market, you kind of want to be semi-friendly with the beat reporters. Look, Robert Salah's biggest downfall was that he was too nice to everybody. He was a player's coach, he was sweetness, he was too nice, he was, you know, kept everybody happy, and everybody kind of ran all over him, including Aaron Rodgers. But going out of your way at the podium to be an ass to the folks who get paid to craft headlines and sell papers, it's just not smart business. Those are the guys and girls who, even in the dark times, if they like you, they can spin it in a way that makes the casual fans that don't see what's really going on behind the scenes get behind you. Like you don't always have to be buddy buddy. And personally, I love the fire that he brings. I love that hard nose, salt of the earth, how's your mother? Oomph. But I only love it if it translates in the locker room and on the field. But to quote your mentor, Bill Parcells, you are what your record says you are. Right? And right now you're two and eight. Two and nine after the Thursday night game. That doesn't cut it. I'm gonna give you some slack. You know, you're signed here for five years. You guys are gonna have the chance to build your team. But uh I don't know, man. I got some news for you. This this media vendetta and the like vitriol that you have towards them, I don't know if it's an act and you're a nice guy, or you're really just a dick like that, it's not gonna play unless you start winning. So you need to start winning. And speaking of on the field and winning, the jury has now officially deliberated on Justin Fields. Look, he was on thin ice before. Now it is official. He is just a running back pretending to be a quarterback under center. He might be the worst player I've seen under center in a Jets uniform, and I've watched Christian Hackenberg take seven sacks in one game, and the back of the New York Post headline was Christian Sackenberg. I mean, he can barely read a defense. His speed is great, but it's useless when they stack the box. His throwing mechanics are terrible, and he holds on to the ball way too long. I honestly believe he's never thrown a guy open in his life, which is a huge thing at the NFL level. This isn't school yard, you run left, you run right, you run deep. When you're watching the game, if you see a man open on the screen and the ball hasn't been thrown already, it's too late. At this level, corners and safety close way too fast, and only elite level arms can sneak a ball in that type of a window. Which, spoiler alert again, Justin Fields doesn't have an elite level arm. The Browns game was won by the special teams and a screen to Brees, not the passing game. Tyrod is basically the cursor hovering over the replace quarterback button in Madden. One more stagnant night, and the click is coming. But the problem with that is Tyrod Taylor is the player of yesteryear. He's not even the guy that was starting over Justin Herbert with the Chargers when we when the when the Chargers were in San Diego. He's a shell of a shell of himself. With Adonai Mitchell active, I mean, at least you've got one clean speedster and someone to build a plan around on a short week. The Thursday night football pick'em pole leaned toward Jets plus 12 and a half. The line eventually went up to 13 and a half, and then eventually covered. So philosophically, division dog, short week, defense that travels, that's a real angle, and it ended up hitting. Really, I was just hoping for the Jets not to embarrass themselves in prime time like they always do. Which they got the ball right out of the gate, went right down, took six minutes off the clock, drived for a touchdown, and then didn't score again until the fourth quarter. So they didn't embarrass themselves, but they sure as hell didn't prove anything. Alright, I've uh I've had enough with the local embarrassment football teams in New York. Let's talk about some teams last week that actually did some things in week 10. And it starts off in Berlin at 9.30 in the morning. You might have slept in. It's tough to catch those 9.30 games, I get it. You might not even have checked your fantasy lineup, and then you might have woke up and seeing that Jonathan Taylor didn't just go off, he erased your entire morning and made you roll over and get back in bed. Indy rode him like a college bell cow. And Daniel Jones, aka Indiana Jones, kept the plane level, hit Tyler Warren up the seam, did his job, came out with a big W against Atlanta. It was one of the games that we featured last week in the look ahead. I thought Atlanta might put up a little more of a fight, and they did. They brought it all the way to overtime, but Jonathan Taylor, Jesus Christ, have yourself a day. Really ruined people's day before they even woke up for their bacon, egg, and cheese. Down in Miami, the upset, nobody had stapled to their parlay, nuked everybody's slips. Miami beats Buffalo handily. Talk about a trap game. And it's a costly loss for the Buffalo Bills because they are chasing New England for a division that New England already holds a game over them. With New England now beating the Jets on Thursday night, they go to 9-2 in the division, and the Bills have some serious ground to make up. And let's not forget, let's show some love out West. The Seattle Seahawks offense just continues to be efficient and dominant. They didn't need 40 passes to prove anything. Sam Darnold hit his spots. Jackson Smith and Jigba, the leading yards receiver in the NFL, just kept stacking. And then the run game closed it out. Arizona continues to not really know what or who they are. They're a two-man elevator. I mean, you got Trey McBride in the wide receiver one wearing a tight end jersey. And Marvin Harrison is good when healthy, not great, but he can still draw moonshots. No Kyler Murray, but Jacoby Brissett seems to be alright. I don't know. They're uh Arizona's in trouble and they've been in trouble for a long time. So, with the games of last week, now let's go on to our week 11 look ahead. Some of the games that you should keep on your radar while you're at the bar and 15 TVs are showing eight different games. First on the list, one o'clock, Bengals at Steelers. This is a huge game in the division for the Steelers, but Cincinnati has proved that they will not roll over and die. The offense has found a new pop with Joe Flacco, and Joe Burrow is right around the corner to come back. Chase is still a cheat code. Higgins can win on the boundary if he's right. And Chase Brown in the backfield gives them yak. The defense is the issue. They have been gashed on the ground, they've been gashed through the air, they've been killed by tight ends. That's the script for Pittsburgh to win. Play downhill, Jalen Warren behind the pads, a little play action to Friarmouth. Force Cincinnati to win a shootout on the road, maybe. But if they can win, big divisional leverage game for Pittsburgh. This kind of feels more like a 30-27 game than a 17-7 game. Pittsburgh's defense has been okay, not great. Cincinnati's defense is literally ranked 32. Next on the list, Chiefs at Broncos, 425. You've finished your 1 o'clock lunch. You've had a couple beers. Should I go home? Should I not? Nah, I think I'm going to stay for the Chiefs Broncos game. Because it's the first meeting of the year, somehow. And it's vibes versus structure. Mahomes is coming off one of those pressure-heavy, off-timing days last week. But Rasheed Rice is the alpha. Hollywood is the changeup. Sprinkle in a little Xavier Worthy and some Travis Kelsey. It's no wonder that they've scored at least 28 points in their last five games. But Denver's defense has quietly become the team that makes you color inside the lines. If KC finds a run game, which it has struggled to do all year, but if they can find the run game, it'll loosen everything else up. If they can't, don't be shocked when the Broncos keep a lid on the explosive plays and they drag you into a fourth quarter coin flip. Denver currently sits atop this division and the Chiefs are just one game over 500. If they can get a game on the road in Denver, this is a huge win for them. But if the Broncos pull this out at home, they might run away with the division. Last game on the list, Sunday night football, Lions at Eagles. This is a who are you really mic check? Dan Campbell has taken a bigger hand in calling plays moving forward. And Detroit's identity is the Gibbs Montgomery Thunder Lightning. Jameson Williams is one juke away from a monster play. And golf in rhythm is death by a thousand eighteen-yard dig routes by Amon Ra. So how does Philly answer? Well, when their protection is clean, AJ Brown can play demolition derby and can flip a drive in one snap, to be honest with you. But if he's covered up, Devonta on the other side of him has chunk play capability. This offense for the Eagles lives on timing throws and pounding the rock. So if this is a track meet, AJ might be able to write the headline. If it's a mid-range boxing match, Devonta could win on points. If it's a brawl in a phone booth, Saquon has the potential to be Superman. But unfortunately, that's not really what the Eagles offense has looked like the past couple weeks or even this whole season. And yet, they're still the one seed in the NFC at 7-2 tied with Seattle. This is going to be a real knock them down, throw them around, see who's got that dog in them Sunday night football game. I'm actually really looking forward to watching this. So with the games from last week covered and some games to watch this week told, a couple league stories that are worth a minute or two. The NFL put out a memo talking about trying to clamp down on specific prop bet markets, whether it be injury adjacent bets or officiating single play outcomes, even trying to draw a line in the sand with some non-common prediction markets, aka offshore betting sites like CalShi and Polymarket. What this really is is after the MLB and NBA headlines, the SHIELD is fortifying their walls. Practically, most legal sports books were kind of already headed there. Philosophically, it's probably the right call. A good amount of betters will be upset in the future when they can't bet on some random players under yardage to try and bet$2,000 to make$2,100. But from a league integrity level, it's the right call. And last thing before we close this NFL segment, I ran a poll on the Mic Check this week asking who your MVP vote is right now. And I gave you the options between Drake May, Matthew Stafford, Jonathan Taylor, and Sam Darnold. I was going to throw in Patrick Mahomes, but I just couldn't fit him. And the results tilted heavy towards Jonathan Taylor. And I get it. He has been outrageous. But here's the problem context matters. No running back has won MVP since Adrian Peterson in 2012. And before that, it was Ladanian Thompson in 2006. Look, fair or not, the award always leans quarterback. Unless the running back has a historic year, breaks a record, and also has a number one seed behind him, they usually don't win it. But for Jonathan Taylor, November is resume season. Let's see if we can keep this historic pace. Let's see if he can uh chase the record for all-time rushing touchdowns. Okay. So that's the NFL. Let's take a quick breather. And then we're jumping into the NBA. We'll touch on Brunson's grade one angle screen, which is great. The Knicks' 7-1 start at the garden. What Mike Brown's offense looked like in the Nets and Grizzlies blowouts. And we'll go over your poll results. The show me in May vibe check edging out the undefeated swagger. Knicks fans don't go anywhere. NBA is up next. Net fans, sorry, not much to talk about. So from the gridiron to the hardwood, let's uh let's get into some hoops because the week at the Garden told the story in three acts. First act, beat up on the annoying neighbors, Knicks 134, Nets 198, and it wasn't even that close anyway. Kat put his elbow in the chest of the Nets and adds another double-double to his resume going 28-12. Brunson and OG both had 19, and Bridges found his shot dropping 16. The bench did what Mike Brown wants the bench to do, which is run you off the floor. They go on an 8-0 run before you even blinked, and then they go up 40 to 22 after the first. 77 points at the half. That's now 11 straight over Brooklyn, and that's no longer a rivalry. Not that it ever really was. That is now just a consistent subscription that auto-renews to lose to the Knicks every year. Now the second act was about handling business. The Grizzlies come into town, a young scrappy team, even with John Morant, you know, they could take advantage of you. Has the potential to be a little bit of a trap game. And the Knicks take it easy 133-120. Brunson authors a beautiful 32-10 night, while Big Cat goes 21-13, another double-double in the books. Bridges and OG with clean nights. The Knicks rip off a 12-0 run to close the first, and then they come right back out with a 7-0 run to start the second. And it's another 77-point halftime game. This is the Mike Brown imprint we've been talking about. Pace without panic. Early threes out of the flow, Kat as a handoff hub, and Brunson slicing and dicing to find his shot. You're seeing 77 point halves and 130-point games tonight more often than not this season. And over that five-game stretch, they had three games over 130 and scored 128 in the Bulls game earlier in the week. The spacing is real, and the decision tree is simple. Hit the paint, kick out, find your shot, rinse and repeat. The third act was the reality check. Orlando comes in and young, scrappy team, good playoff team. They added some guys. They snapped the streak. Knicks dropped the game 124-107. But the important headline of the game was Brunson rolled his ankle, unfortunately, the same one from last year that caused him to miss some time. The worst part is it happens in under two minutes left in the game, so they were pretty much out of it. As soon as that happened, Mike Brown cleared the bench and seceded the loss. So he's out Friday versus Miami. He was in a boot and crutches after the game, his day-to-day. That's the headline. That's the big headline. But the sub headline is the vibe check poll I put out this week. The options were Show Me and May or Undefeated Swagger, based upon how we feel about this offense. And Show Me and May just edged it out a little bit, and I love it. That's the right tension for this group. You gotta enjoy the fireworks. Seven and one at the garden is real. But if you want me to talk April. And May, it's the stuff that you can bank on when the whistle gets swallowed. The defensive glass, the turnover control, the second and third creator when Brunson sits or needs a breather. So, on that note, what does it look like going forward without JB? Well, you don't just replace 32 and 10 with one dude, right? You gotta redistribute the job. So you need more deuce minutes to steady in the first action. You need more Clarkson on the ball and off the ball to get downhill. Bridges has to be the closeout killer, which he usually is. And OG needs to either shoot his threes or play lockdown defense. And more importantly, Kat needs to be the late clock pressure valve. He needs to be the guy that he's supposed to be in this offense rolling forward. Not to mention, if Mitch is healthy and back, which he rested front of the week for the back-to-back, so he should be ready to go. Him and Hart have to own the glass so you can play early again. Because Miami is going to try and wall you off. They're going to test your patience. They're going to dare somebody not named Brunson to beat them with the smart decisions. Hell, maybe even a little Tyler Koelick action. Let's see if Dick can play, or he just had some flashes here and there. And I do want to go back to this week's tape for one more second, just a couple things to touch on because it it matters for the bigger picture. Look, against the Nets, you saw what this can be with Nefloor of space, and five guys touch it. Seven for eleven from deep. Everybody was eating. The pace choking the opponent. And against Memphis, we saw you can build a lead with defense and runs play. They strip it, they sprint it, they stack it. But against the magic, you saw what happens when the ball sticks. You don't win first contact at the rim. And you lose your engine late. All three knights live in this team. And Mike Brown's job, and he's off to a great start, is hardwiring the first two and shrinking the third. The poll matters here. Show me and May isn't hating, it's homework. You've got the shooting, you've got the pace, you got real grown-ups in OG, Bridges, and Hart in the room. The next layer is playoff proof playoff proof habits. Say that three times fast. You need the late game counters that don't start and end with Brunson playing hero ball. You need rebounding as a five-man religion. And you got to keep that turnover number boring. Do that, and 7-1 at the garden turns into bring anybody in here and we'll send them home. So short term, Friday is a gut check without JB. I expect more quick hitter sets to get bridges, some touches at 18 feet, OG in the corners, and yeah, again, some Clarkson, maybe some Tyler Kolick. But I also expect Kat to be the initiator against switches. And I do expect Brown to lean into the identity that built those Nets Grizzly wins. Run on the catch, pass ahead, hunt early threes before Miami can get hands on you. We'll see how it goes, and we're hoping for the best. But this team goes nowhere without Brunson. So let him take as long as he needs. We'll stack some wins. We're better than most teams. Let him come back healthy when he's ready. Alright, Nick fans. Breathe. Hydrate. Hell, ice your own ankle for solidarity with 11. We'll keep tracking the day-to-day on Brunson and the tweaks around him as they come in. But up next, baseball heads don't move. The votes are in. MVPs and Cy Young's are on the board. Aaron Judge, Shohei Otani, the whole conversation and what it means for the hot stove moving forward. Keep it right here. Baseball's next. Two MVPs on the board, one razor close, and one was a layup. Aaron Judge first, third MVP in four years, and it came in a photo finish, believe it or not, over Cal Raleigh. But the case is simple for Judge. Batting title at 331, led the sport in OPS and WRC Plus. And this matters, he drew an AL record 36 intentional walks. Translation, teams literally choose to put a free base runner on rather than pitch to him. And just an explainer for the stat heads and the cousins listening in the Uber. WRC Plus is weighted runs created plus. So that bakes in park and ERA. 100 is usually the league average. 150 means that you're 50% better than the league average, right? Judge is living around 200. So that basically means he's hit like two guys at once in your lineup. For the NL Otani, yeah, we get it. He's ridiculous. Unanimous, yet again, four MVPs in five years. And I'm not throwing rose petals at his feet, but here are the facts. 55 bombs, a 179 OPS, comes back to make 14 starts with a sub-3 ERA after the elbow last year. And then to close the show, Rex it in October. Six scoreless in the NLCS, reached base nine times in that 18-inning World Series marathon that we all stayed up till 3 a.m. for. Look, you don't have to be poetic about it. The Dodgers paid$700 million for a unicorn, and they got back-to-back Octobers that ended in jewelry. He's just he's just better than your pitcher and your cleanup hitter, and he leads off. As for the offseason Yankees winter, this is the show, right? Every move is judged against Judge. First, I think you need to make a real play to keep Cody Bellinger lefty, runs, defends, lengthens the lineup, changes the math around 99, can play first, can play left. You know. But the other important decision to make is the kids. Do you trust the farm and bring them up to grow next to Judge? Or are we finally ready to package these prospects and move on to some proven adults? There is a world where you can thread it both ways. You hold on to one or two blue chippers and then you move the surplus, add maybe one more high on base percentage player. But the goal isn't another great regular season. It's making Judge scary in October, not stranded and walked and taken out of the game. As for the Cy Young's, well, they tell the real offseason story and why pitching, scouting, and development is really the whole name of the ballgame. Paul Skeens, last year's rookie of the year, wins Cy Young at 23 years old with five years of control left. That's a cheat code for a front office. Scoobyl repeats Cy Young's at 28 with just one year of control left. An elite arm, and I would love for the Mets to trade for him. But a totally different team calculus. If you can grow just one scheme, you save nine figures, and you set your culture and you buy yourself some time if there are some lineup mistakes. That's why these dudes get paid what they get paid. And why player development is and always will be more important than analytics and going to the binder. Which now brings up your poll, brings us to your poll that I put out this week. And it was Pirates and Skeens. Do you keep him because you owe the fans or do you trade him now for the King's ransom? And believe it or not, keep him won by a single vote, 19 to 18. And I'm actually with the keep him crowd. I mean, look, unless somebody offers you an obscene multiple top 50 prospects and a big league bat with control kind of offer. An ace in your uniform is the thing that Pittsburgh's been trying to sell for a decade. They even offered whoever pulled the Paul Skins one-of-one trading card season tickets for the next 30 years behind home plate if you turned it in for them to them so they could put it on display. Don't overthink it. When the time comes, don't be afraid to open up the checkbook for a monster of a pitcher that you may never see in your franchise again. Don't be the team that doesn't spend. Don't be the team that makes it why we have to have a salary cap moving forward, or there's going to be a lockout. God, recognize your talent. Pay your talent. Enjoy your talent. Let your fans enjoy your talent. I guarantee if you do sell out for him and you do pay him, that more people will show up to the games. That fan base is loyal as hell. But if they can know they can watch schemes for the next 10 years, I bet you they'd be real happy. Alright, Diamond Talk is done, short and sweet. After the break, we're diving into some fantasy talk. A couple lineup landmines to avoid. And the roll in the dice with rice segment. I got two totals I like. Jalen Warren's number and the locals leading. Stick around. We're doing two things right now: fixing your lineup for week 11 and setting the slips for the weekend. Quick, sharp, useful stuff to go off of. We'll start with the lineups first. If you're staring at big names and getting a little queasy, you aren't alone this week. Patrick Mahomes versus Denver is a real hold your nose spot. He's been awesome this year, no doubt, but that Broncos defense is the mud. Second fewest points to QB's, and they turned the game into a field position math quiz. If you got a viable pivot like Joe Flacco at Pittsburgh this week, I'm not entirely mad at it. Flacco's been a top-end streamer waiting for Joe Burrow to get back, and the Steelers bleed passing yards. If you're playing points, not jerseys, Flacco might be the play. Saquon Barkley versus Detroit is another one too. The volume is there. The efficiency, not so much. And the Lions just suffocate run games. You can still start Saquon, but temper your expectations a little bit. Think floor, not fireworks, right? Derrick Henry at Cleveland, same kind of story, different helmet. If he's not catching passes, the Browns turn him into three yards and a cloud of sadness as of late. At receiver, Debo Samuel against Miami could be a trap. His usage has dipped, and Miami's quietly stingy against wide receivers. Washington's likely to get run heavy without Terry. Xavier Worthy versus Denver, I love the talent, but I hate the matchup. Broncos corner, squeeze you even with Sertan Hurt and the catch point, they don't give up wide receiver touchdowns. If you picked up K Dotten, I love his recent run he's been on, but Buffalo has been a hard no on tight ends all year. So if you need a plug and play, maybe think uh Jonu Smith versus Cincy. That kind of makes sense. Bengals are a tight end funnel, and Jonu leads the room in routes for Pittsburgh. Now, some moves to make before the trade deadline, which are generally this week for most leagues. Big names that you want to buy on that you don't really care if you're going for the league and someone will sell to you. First on the list is CeeDee Lamb, and that is the exact profile you overpay for and still feel good about it. He's got elite share, his end zone looks are always there. The points are coming, trust me. Drake London is a buy, also. The usage is alpha, the chemistry with Penix is real. Jalen Waddle, same thing. You can buy a legit wide receiver one for the rest of the season while Miami just keeps leaning on him. Bichon, look, if there is even a sniff of a discount, you pounce on it. Bichon will be the running back that will carry you into the playoffs and win you some matchups. Same thing kind of goes for Jalen Warren. The usage is there, and he's got some good friendly matchups coming forward down the stretch. The talent is nowhere near B. But Jalen Warren could be a nice little cheap pickup. If you want to buy a tight end, obviously the premium right now is Trey McBride. He's a league winner, period. End of story. Ten catches a game, always 80 yards, good for a touchdown. Trey McBride is a camp miss snag if someone's willing to sell him. And maybe a little bit on the deeper side, a couple deeper swings to pick up. DK Metcalf, Tetra Toy McMillan, JJ McCarthy. If you need a late quarterback upside, maybe somebody's just not performing. Aaron Jones as a running back, he's the one that you'll feel gross about trading for, but then you'll look up in like three weeks and he's carried you to a couple wins. For the waiver wire crowd, some guys to stash and add. Theo Johnson on the Giants, Kafka loves 12 personnel. And he's been getting some real targets. Added I Mitchell on the Jets is a true speedster, a clean separator. And with Garrett Wilson on the IR, somebody has to run an actual route tree. You just got to hold your hopes up that field can actually throw the ball to him. Chase Brown in Cincy, if for some reason he's on the waiver wire just happens to be out there, the passing down juice is one that you'll want when the weather starts to turn. And Dawson Knox with Kincaid out, Joshua Palmer as the Chargers wide receiver who can actually win downfield when he's healthy. If you're streaming defenses still, which usually is the right play, Ravens, Browns, 49ers, they all make sense. If they're floating around, they got some easier schedules to coming up. It's not the worst idea to grab one of them or even two of them and stash them, play the matchups. And as far as some sells before guys stop answering DMs, these aren't the guys that I'm telling you to get rid of. I'm just saying that if someone comes knocking with a decent price, you can entertain it. First name on the list, Nico Collins. The schedule turns ugly. He's been good as of late, but it turns ugly later. Get out on a spike, get a player. It might even be the name to throw in for a guy like B. John. Rashad White, you can start to sell. Sean Tucker has already been carving into the pie, and Bucky Irving has been coming back to practice. So that was fun while it lasted. Brees Hall, look, if someone wants to pay full fright for a highlight and some pass catching here and there while the offense just wheezes, go for it. Same thing with Travis Etienne. If someone thinks that he's matchup proof through the playoffs, he's probably not. Not to mention that Jacksonville has looked lost as of late. So again, you don't have to force it. But just be open if someone offers you January points today for a player that's going to decline later. Okay. Now on to the segment you've all been waiting for. The rolling the dice with rice gambling card. Let's bet some edges. The record is now 22 and 23. The heater is real. We started at 5 and 17. We climbed our way out of this crater. And yes, Thursday night football play is already out there. Jets plus 13.5, and that's a hit. So we're actually 23 and 23. Don't you just love to see that? Okay, let's get the card out. Let's fatten up your wallets. First game I love, love this week. Bucks at the Bills, I love the over 48 and a half. Buffalo at home generally means tempo and explosive plays. They have two bad losses back to back. And Tampa keeps drives alive in that 10 to 19 air yard window. The Bills can stress you horizontally and then rip a seam. And the Bucs counter with layered middle of the field shots and end zone work to both K Dotten and Ibuka. Both offenses live in the mid-20s without being perfect. A single short field turns this into a track meet. I love this over 48.5. Next game on the card, Seattle at Rams. Same thing. Over 48.5. Stafford has been on fire lately. He's been in rhythm, and McVay's play action shot menu against a defense that bleeds yards after the catch is a recipe for points. Seattle doesn't need 40 attempts to explode either. Darnold has been super efficient, and JSN gets open, keeps stacking up chunk plays. They'll hit on crossers all day. And on the other side, the Rams in breaking game creates explosive plays without needing 70-yard go balls. Puka is a stud. Kyron Williams is a stud. And both kickers can finish drives if the red zone bogs down too. So that's points right there. This has trade touchdowns energy. Give me the over at 48.5. Another one, love it. Third on the list. I'm actually giving you guys a player prop this week. I usually only do games, but we're going to do a player prop this week. Jalen Warren over 76.5 rushing yards. This is the this is a centerpiece. Cincinnati has been the most generous run defense in the league by yardage, by a mile. Pittsburgh's line wants to hammer the ball, and Jalen Warren wants to be the nail. The script fits either way. Lead, you get volume. You trail, Tomlins still feeds the run to keep the defense on their heels. Add in the fact that the Bengals missed tackles and Warren's yards after contact, 18 to 20 touches gets you home. If the books hanging at 74 and a half, pounce on it. I'd even play this up to 79.5, to be honest with you. For the locals, I already gave it out because the Jets were on in Thursday. I put out the reel on the Instagram. You got to check it out. We went with Jets plus 13.5 and Drake May anytime touchdown. Divisional dog, short week, defense that travels somewhat well. That's a real angle. And it matched our poll vibes too. The Jets cover number is about the defense and special teams keeping it respectable. That's it. They've already stolen games that way. The May touchdown is a red zone cheat code. One design keeper from the five cashes it. Unfortunately, New England didn't call that. So the Drake May touchdown lost, but the Jets did cover the 13 and a half number. And lastly on the card, Packers at Giants. Well, new install for Jameis on a short week. Fourth quarter leaks on defense. And still, still the kicker saga. That's a lot of friction for the Giants. Green Bay, two ugly losses. Offenses look shoddy. Green Bay can lean on Jacobs, set up Jordan Love's intermediate game, and then let the pass rush just tee off on Jameis. Giants have been in games late, but they've been gassed late too. And the Packers physically tend to pull away in the third. I want the minus six and a half. If it hits seven, maybe consider buying the hook the other way for the Giants, but I feel like this is a touchdown game. Give me the Packers at minus six and a half. Okay, that's the card. Set your lineups with some plan. Fade the landmines they gave you. Buy the usage. Don't chase the names. And on the bets, price matters more than feelings. Shop it out, set your limits, and live to fight another day. Shit, live to live to the 4 p.m. window. After the break, we're going to button this episode up with an outro, plug the socials, and send you on your way into the weekend properly. Stick around. Well, alright, everybody. That will do it. That is the show. We hit the Giants first. Gable out after another blown lead. And your mic check said long overdue. Then we kicked around the real question. What kind of coach do you actually want next? And should they have waited until the end of the season to fire him? Next, we slid to the Jets. Garrett Wilson to the IR, the Aaron Glenn injury blackout split the city. Fields is on thin ice with Tyrod hovering right behind him. And we got our Thursday night football angle locked into. We checked the Knicks, 7-1 at the Garden, but Brunson's ankles day to day. The offense is still humming through the Nets and Grizzly Winds. Baseball heads got their flowers too. MVP and Cy Young Awards crowned. Plus, why pitcher scouting and development could decide the future of your franchise. Skiing's at 23 with years of control, scoobo repeating, and what that means for when you're building a new roster. Week 11 fantasy talk, a few lineup landmines to avoid, a couple by lows to steal, and then we closed with your wallets. The cards in Bucks and Bills, Seattle and Rams, PlayerProp, and both local teams. Responsible units, shop your numbers, don't chase. If you rocked with me today, do me a solid. Follow and sub everywhere. Instagram, TikTok, YouTube. It's all at Rice on the Radio. Rate the pod on Apple and Spotify. Drop a quick line. It helps way more than you think and pushes me up to the top of the list. Literally only takes you three clicks. My DMs are always open. Start, sit, panic, bet talk, show takes, guest ideas, a good meme. Hit me anytime. And make sure you tap into the Wednesday mic check on the IG stories. Your votes steer the show. You literally saw it today. Thank you again for listening, though, truly. Talking sports is something that I love, and without y'all listening, it would just be me talking to the wall. So share the podcast with that one friend who needs better sports takes. As always, spread some good energy in this world. Hold the door for someone. Tip your bartender a little more than you usually do. Tell someone you love them and actually mean it. I Amine Rice. This has been episode 39 of Rice on the Mikes, and I'll see you guys next episode. Good luck and go get 'em.