Rice on the Mics

Who Actually Has a Plan?

• Ian • Season 1 • Episode 43

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We ask a simple question and chase it across the NFL, MLB, and college football: who actually has a plan and who is running on vibes. From Jets quarterback chaos and Giants’ post-bye stakes to Mets departures and Notre Dame’s bowl exit, we follow decisions, not slogans.

• Jets effort test in Jacksonville and the cost of QB roulette
• Giants defense as tone-setter off the bye against a backup
• Week 14 as a sort for real contenders and fragile pretenders
• Texans rise, Bears wobble, Hurts panic, clinching scenarios
• Fantasy playoff pivots with matchup-driven starts and sits
• Betting card logic: trenches, weather, and motivation edges
• Mets lose Díaz and Alonso, Orioles swing big, Yankees juggle payroll
• What a real front-office pivot should look like right now
• Notre Dame’s bowl withdrawal and why it hurts players

If you're new here, hit follow, drop a rating, share the show with a friend who screams at their Kiwi the same way that you do. Make sure you tap in on Instagram too. Hop in on the polls, send a mailbag question, all the stuff that genuinely helps this thing grow.


SPEAKER_00:

I guess it's the only one way to find out let's do it too. You ever notice how every team swears they have a plan right up until reality grabs the mic right out of their hands? On one side, you got teams actually changing the story, adapting, adjusting, taking those big swings. On the other, you got front offices and programs just hoping vibes and brand power carry them through while everything burns behind them. That's the kind of lane that we're in this week. We got Jets fans staring down 15 years of no playoffs, quarterback roulette again, and somehow they're still trying to talk themselves into well, if this breaks our way, maybe. I got Giants coming off a bye, Commanders limping into MetLife without Jaden Daniels. And it's a moment where both locals have to decide what they want to be the rest of the season. Are you guys playing spoilers? Are you building something? Or are we just logging games till the season's over? Around the league, week 14 gave us Rogers walking into Baltimore and snatching the division back. The Colts literally dragging Phillip Rivers off of a high school sideline because they ran their starter into the ground. And the Chiefs getting pushed around in their own building by Houston. Then week 15 shows up like cool, here's Bills, Pats, Raiders, Eagles, Packers, Broncos. Figure out who's for real. On the college side, Notre Dame, yeah, we we gotta talk about that. You didn't get into the playoff, you lost to Miami head-to-head, and your response is to throw a public tantrum and yank a bowl game away from your seniors. For a program that loves to talk about tradition and brotherhood, sure says a lot about what the real priorities are. Later, we got Rollin' the Dice with Rice and your fantasy playoff survival week, who you can actually trust in these matchups and who's about to give you an early exit. And then then the big one. The Yankees watching the division get stronger while they worry about the payroll line. Who's actually building something and who's just hoping that the name on the front of the jersey still scares people? That's the heartbeat. Changing the story, and who really has a plan? Lots to cover, so let's just get right into it. So let's start where we always start. The locals. The Jets are the perfect example of this week's theme. Changing the story or pretending you have a plan while you just spin the wheel at quarterback. That Dolphins game was flat out gross. Drops everywhere, timing off, and you could kind of feel it was coming with Tyrod. The way he plays, the way this offensive line holds up. You just knew at some point he was going to take a shot and not pop up right away. So he goes down, the whole building deflates, and suddenly you're sending in Brady Cook and asking, Could this fourth round pick be our savior that we've been looking for? No, is the answer. All while that's happening on the field, the bigger story is what I told you guys in the mic check this week. I threw up a poll, the Jets quarterback room graphic. If everybody's healthy, who do you actually want starting right now? Almost half of you still rode with Tyrod. About 30% said gimme Justin Fields, and the rest of you said you're ready to find out what Brady Cook is about. And that's a very Jets fan pie chart. Forty-seven percent just said, gimme the competent adult who won't light himself on fire. 29% said you say I still believe in the lottery ticket, and 24% said, screw it, gimme the mystery box. And then I followed that up with the evil question. Who makes the playoffs first? Jets or Giants? Sixty-three percent of that poll said Giants. That's not a poll, that's an indictment. Because after last week, it's officially fifteen straight seasons without a playoff appearance for the Jets. Fifteen. That's not growing up. That's literally you're hitting puberty since the last time the Jets went to the playoffs. It's the longest active drought in all of American professional sports. The Kings got in, the Mariners got in, the Browns got in, and the Jets are still in the same seat, staring at the same door. So now you go down to Jacksonville this week, a Jags team that just took control of the division and knows that Houston is breathing down their neck. This isn't about the spreads yet, this isn't about fantasy, we'll do that later. This is simply can you keep this from turning into another HN runs all over the place game? You've got a beat-up quarterback room, a workhorse back in Brees Hall that's about to run into one of the toughest run defenses in football, and a defense that just got bullied. Look, if you want to change the story at all, even a little bit, this has to be one of those effort games. This has to be one of those games that convinces people that they're playing for Aaron Glanstale. You gotta limit the explosive plays, make them kick field goals, don't hand them short fields with turnovers. And for the love of God, can we catch the ball when you're open? When it hits you in hands instead of in the chest. Look, nobody's asking you to kick the door down to the playoffs at this point. That door has been welded shut anyway. But don't roll over and become a get-right spot for everybody else's playoff push. Play some spoiler. Be mean. Be gangrene. On the blue side of town, it's a different vibe. But the same question. What kind of team are you coming off of the bye this week? I put up the poll off the bye. What has to show up first? Hot start on offense or the defense plays tough. 61% of you said defense. Which is very on brand for Giants fans. You want that unit to come off the bus, set the tone, thump people, show they have some life, maybe even drag the offense along with them if they have to. And you're getting a little bit of a gift this week with that, too. Washington sitting Jaden Daniels after he retweaked that elbow. And honestly, as a football fan, that's the right call. The kid is uber talented, but has already missed a bunch of time. They're eliminated anyway. You don't need him out there in week 15 trying to play superhero down, three scores, because what? It's important for him to get the reps, then suddenly it's an RG3 situation all over again. So it's probably going to be Marcus Mariota. And it's it's a commander's team that's been frisky but inconsistent. And it's your defense staring at a very simple test this week. Can you stop Chris Rodriguez and a pretty basic run game from turning into a you've been gashed all year up the middle game again? Because the numbers on this Giants run defense have been ugly. Teams are ripping off chunk plays, and that's why every fantasy article on earth is circling this matchup saying, hey, if you're desperate at running back, start literally anyone against the Giants. That's not the list that you want to be on. And offensively, this is where the buy has to pay off. Your last game was December 1st. You've been in New York for two weeks. Fresh legs on the line, some self-scouting and self-assessment, and you know, maybe a couple scripted drives that don't look like they were drawn in the dirt. And remember, remember that playoff poll. 63% of you think that this is the New York team that gets back to January 1st. So if that's true, you can't stumble out of the bye and lay an egg at home against a backup quarterback. It doesn't matter who's coaching the team. Now, zooming out, week 14 felt like a sorting hat for teams that have a plan versus we're just doing our best. First game, Pittsburgh walks into Baltimore and Aaron Rodgers does what he does, basically plants a flag on the division. That's what you pay for with a grown-up quarterback like that. Look, you might not love everything about the roster or how it's looked all year, but when the lights are bright, that's the guy. He can walk into a hostel building, not be rattled by it, and say, Yep, that run of yours is cute, but this is still our division. In Jacksonville, Indy gave us a master class in what not having a plan looks like. You run Daniel Jones out there behind that line with literally a broken leg. I said this last week and I couldn't believe I was saying it. And of course, what happens? What happens because of that broken leg? He overcompensates and he tears his Achilles. Then the backup backup got hurt, and now you're on the phone with a 44-year-old Phillip Rivers who was literally coaching high school last week. That's franchise malpractice. You can't talk about building something and then end up emergency signing Uncle Rico off the sideline in Alabama. You can't let Daniel Jones play there. I know the record is what it is, and it's a big game, but you got to take your lumps and try and let the guy heal a little bit. And yet, on top of it, the Rivers thing is fascinating. This man is a semifinalist to go into the Pro Football Hall of Fame this year and now just threw it away at 44 years old and reset his eligibility to what? Get that last little bit of juice that he has left in his body out? The Rocky kind of syndrome of, you know, make sure the monster's gone when you leave the ring. And that his teammates are out here saying that he can still sling it. I mean, he knows Shane Steichen's offense front to back. He was literally teaching it to his high school team that he got called away from. And the poll that I put out was split right down the middle, too. It was between Uncle Rico can still sling it or that man's a grandfather, stop it. And that's kind of exactly how I feel about this. Half of me is like, this is insane. This man needs to protect his hips. He's gonna have 22-year-olds trying to rip his head off. And then the other half of me is so ready for Rivers to throw for 300 yards on three-step drops and hit Tyler Warren like he's having flashbacks throwing to Antonio Gates all over again. If nothing else, he instantly raises the IQ in the room and he can put guys in the right position to succeed. So I guess that's good, right? Cincinnati Buffalo was the opposite. Josh Allen finally slays the Borough Dragon. Since he jumps out early, and the old Bills teams usually fold there. Shit, the Bills teams as of late probably fold there. But instead, Allen settles in, he makes the right throws, and for once the defense actually closes a game against a legit quarterback. That's a little rewrite the script moment for a team that's been struggling as of late. Good on them. Then you got Houston walking into Arrowhead, into Kansas City, and making the Chiefs look small. The score says it was a close game, but I watched it. The eye test says Houston's front bullied them. Will Anderson and that Texans defense are playing with bad intentions. That's a bad man. And D'Mico Ryans has him fully bought in. His whole eyes in front, next target thing is a perfect example of an organization that actually does have a plan and is executing on it. They started 0-3 and now they're 8-5. And I'll tell you one thing right now, not one person, not one team wants to see them come wild card time. The flip side of that coin, Chicago. The Bears literally go from first in the NFC to seventh with one loss. And then suddenly you're looking ahead at the schedule. Packers again, Niners, Lions. And yeah, they could absolutely find a way out of the playoffs. Caleb Williams is the full experience right now in the worst way. He's got the lowest completion percentage among volume passers. He's missing layups, and then he'll literally uncork something that makes you clutch your pearls. The coach literally said, quote, we're trying to merge. That's one of the most incredible plays I've ever seen, with can you just hit the open guy on time? End quote. That's his literal quote at the podium. Look, until they figure out how to marry those two, that feel-good bears are back story is very fragile. And I can't leave, we can't leave Philly out on this either. Jalen Hurts throws four picks, five total turnovers, literally threw a pick, got the ball back, and then fumbled it. And they lose in overtime to the Chargers on Monday night. And now the whole town of Philly is calling radio stations asking if he should be benched. Benched. Jalen Hurts, benched. Nick Siriani had to go on air and basically say, guys, relax. This is still my dude. It's wild. I mean, this man is a Super Bowl MVP. He's 54 and 25 in the regular season, six and three in the playoffs. Two bad weeks and a rough season from a couple Divo receivers, and everybody's literally ready to drive him to the airport. Well, do me a favor, drive him to the JFK, drive him to New airport. I'll take him on the Jets right now. They play the 2-11 Raiders this week in Philly. This has to be a get right game. If that thing is 17-13 in the fourth quarter and ugly, the city might actually riot. Which leads us to the point of the season of hat and t-shirt time. First tickets for the division can get punched this weekend. Denver can lock up a spot with basically any positive result, win and they're in, or you know, a whole flow chart of ties and other teams losing. But if they win, they're in. Rams are simple too, beat the Lions and they're in. Patriots can literally clinch a division, a playoff spot, and maybe even a home field advantage throughout with a win over Buffalo. After everything, the post-Brady wandering, the rebuild, the Mac Jones trauma. Here they are, sitting at 11-2 with a chance to slam the door on the AFC East at home, and the entire NFL fandom finds themselves right back into LOL Pat's win again era. And as for week 15, that Bills Patz game is just such a perfect microcosm. The Buffalo, Buffalo's trying to hang on. They're trying to recalibrate expectations from what they thought they were going to be this year. They're probably chasing a wild card at this point and jockeying for position. While New England is trying to just slam the window shut and remind everybody who built this neighborhood in the first place. Snowy, cold, rainy game up in Foxboro. Total rock fight potential. Eagles Raiders, I touched on it before. That's the true get right vibes game. Either Philly comes out angry and wins by three scores, or it turns into another fourth quarter slog, and everyone in that stadium sees their life flash before their eyes and has the local radio station on speed dial. And as for the Packers Broncos, it's sneaky fun. Both teams are legit, but both have a bunch of people still doubting them. Two conference powerhouses, two fan bases who have heard all year, yeah, but this, yeah, but that. It's a measuring stick game on both sides. Do you actually belong in that top tier or have you just been beating up on the middle class? And it all kicks off Thursday night, Falcons at Bucks. I put the poll up with the spread, Bucks minus four and a half, and you guys were heavy on Tampa, about 70% rolling with the Bucks. It makes sense. Look, they're getting Mike Evans back, they're getting Jalen McMillan back. Triffson Wirfs is back on the line, and it's literally the first time all year Baker gets his full compliment of wide receivers. Meanwhile, Atlanta missing Drake London again. Kyle Pitts is banged up, and honestly, let's he's Kyle Pitts, so you know who cares. And they're coming off getting smoked by Seattle. So I'm sure morale is real high in the locker room. This one's not even really a plan game. This is just two teams trying to survive. Tampa and Carolina are tied atop the division at 7-6, and the Falcons are hanging on at 4-9. Somebody's got to win the NFC South. And it feels like the Bucs are at least trying to push their chips in and do what they can. They're getting healthy at the right time. And lastly, a quick little note that got buried in the fine print of all this. The refs collective bargain agreement expires after this season. You remember years ago with the uh Fail Mary in Seattle versus Green Bay, another Aaron Rodgers moment. The league is already sending out memos talking about more accountability, longer probation, practice squads for officials, all the buzzwords, all the BS. Like we've seen this movie before. Just file it away, and when we're all screaming about replacement refs in week one because billionaires and a union couldn't agree on bonuses, you know, that's the usual. But that's the landscape. That's where we are. Week 15 in the NFL. Jets and Giants are trying to figure out who they are still. Rivers is dusting off the old bolo tie. Hertz is fighting the entire city of Philadelphia. The Bears are wobbling. The Texans are surging. And division hats and t-shirts are on the line. So from here, we are going to roll right into the roll in the dice segment and the fantasy side because some of these plans, quote unquote, look a lot different when there's money and playoff matchups on the line. Stay tuned for some advice to hopefully help you win your league and fatten your wallet a bit. Okay, folks, helmets on, wallets out. It is that time. We've officially hit fantasy playoff season. Some of you are sipping a bye week, like a nice glass of wine. Some of you drew the juggernaut one seed and asking, how did we let this dude draft this team? And some of you are already eliminated. Staring at your roster, wondering. Where it all went wrong and swearing you're never playing again until that group chat lights up in August. So let's do both things at once. We'll set your lineups for survival and we'll set your slips for the weekend. We'll start it off with fantasy, and these are the matchups to attack and the matchups to avoid at each position. Quarterbacks. If you're desperate at QB, like your starter got hurt and your backup, it's Jacoby Purset desperate. I don't hate rolling the dice on JJ McCarthy in Dallas. I know, I know it sounds gross. He's been bad. EPA hates him. The film isn't much kinder, but he just threw for three touchdowns and 20 plus fantasy points on Washington. And the Cowboys have quietly become a quarterback cheat code. They're giving up 24.5 fantasy points per game to the position. Three more than anybody else in the league. Twelve quarterbacks have played at least 75% of their snaps against them. And only three of those guys have finished under 23 fantasy points. So the bar you're asking JJ to clear here is basically can you please be better than 2025 Geno Smith on a bad day? With O'Connell dialing it up and the weapons he has, there's at least a path. That's a deep league. I hate myself, but I see the logic kind of start stream. But it is what it is. Flip side, Jacobi Purset at Houston, fantasy darling since he took the job, QB2 in total points, top 12 every start, has basically lived in garbage time and made it work. And I'm telling you right now, if you have any other decent option, this is the week you park him. Houston has given up 12.2 points per game to quarterbacks. Nobody has cracked 20 on them. That front is real, the coverage is real, and this game script might not even give him cheap yards that he's been living on. I love the story. I love what he's done for fantasy this year as a late night, late push. But this is the thanks for the memories, see you week 16 if we survive spot. And then you got the commander situation. James Daniels bang bangs that elbow again. They're officially out of the playoff race, and Dan Quinn has ruled him out for the Giants game. So if Marcus Mariota starts, which it looks like he's going to, quietly, a very viable streamer is him. I mean, he has some finishes QB six, QB9, QB ten, QB three. The Giants have given up fifth most fantasy points to QB since week ten. They're getting gashed up the middle and they're getting gashed on the sides. If you're in that same JJ McCarthy tier of panic, Mariota versus the Giants is not the worst play you can think of. Running back time. A couple of very matchup driven backs for this week. Same thing. First one, Giants game, Chris Rodriguez. Washington has basically made him their lead down early guy last few weeks. Uh Bill Krosky Merritt is out of the picture. And it hasn't really turned into big fantasy production just yet, but if there was ever a spot, it's this one. The Giants are allowing six point one yards per carry to running backs. That's mad in numbers. Six point one yards per carry. Two runs, and they have a first down. He's got that leading backfield and carries. He's got legit 15 for 80 and a shot at a score upside. Deeper leagues or injury hell or double flex formats. Play him. Now on the opposite of that, stay with the locals, Brees Hall and Jacksonville. The usage is beautiful. He catches nice screens. On most teams, 80 plus percent of the running back rush air and 50% route run would make him a locked in top five. I have to start him every week running back. But Jacksonville has been a real problem for running backs as of late. They give up the fifth fewest fantasy points, the lowest rushing yards per game, and the fourth lowest rushing yards per carry. I'm not saying you auto-bench Brees. I mean, volume is still king. Get the ball in his hands. He's still good for an explosive play here and there. But this is one of those weeks where you're gonna have to at least have the conversation or at least temper your expectations a little bit. If you have another solid option in a plus matchup, do not be afraid to break the never sit your studs religion for one week. And I know it's a big week, but this could be the week for Brees Hall. And also don't forget Chicago's backfield against Cleveland. The Browns just got absolutely cooked by Tony Pollard and Tajay Spears. And over their last five games, they're giving up 120 plus scrimmage yards per game to running backs. The Bears, the one thing they want to do more than anything is run. They're bottom 10 in pass rate, and DeAndre Swift is a legit top 20 play in that spot. Kyle Manunga, local Rutgers boy, is more of a touchdown or bus start, but he can still do what he has to do. So if you're praying for 15 carries and a plunge from the two, you you could do worse. As for receivers, well, I got two notes here. One, if you made the playoffs with Justin Jefferson on your roster, God bless you. And yes, you're starting him. It has been ugly without Carson Wentz. In non-Wentz games, he's been a low-end wide receiver three at best. But again, if you're willing to consider JJ McCarthy against Dallas being a plus matchup, we're not benching his number one wide receiver target. The usage is still elite. His hands are elite. He knows how to target the ball. This is the kind of spot where he might finally pop for you when it matters the most. On the downside, Michael Pittman and Alec Pierce at Seattle, the the Seahawks are just Seahawks defense is just unreal. They're the fifth tough toughest matchup for wideouts. They allow the fewest receiving yards per game to the position. And now you take Daniel Jones out of the picture, and you're talking about throwing 44-year-old Phillip Rivers off the couch and into death almost. Vegas usually knows what's up, and they have the Colts team total sitting in the low teens. That screams volume with no payoff. At best, both of those receivers are a wide receiver three or a flex play. And also, quick commanders add. If Mariota does go, Terry McLaurin is a rock solid wide receiver two. In three games, he and Mariota really played together. Terry was getting almost 40% of the air yards and over 20% of the targets thrown. In PPR volume, that's a good play. Giants have been leaking points to receivers. If you survive this long without Terry, you're rolling with them now. As for tight ends, uh tight end is simple. Start every Ravens tight end you can against Cincinnati. The Bengals are not even historically bad. They are insanely bad versus the run versus the tight end versus the receivers versus everything. About 20 half-point PPR games to tight end, seven plus catches, almost 100 yards and a touchdown on average. Mark Andrews just hit a new high in route participation last week. Isaiah Likely is still getting heavily involved. Lamar is not running around. He's looking to throw the ball. Honestly, both guys are playable in the same lineup, maybe even in deeper leagues. It's that soft of a matchup. And as far as a guy that probably carried you here, you might have to sit Hunter Henry this week. The Buffalo game, it's going to be cold. It's going to be rainy, snowy, it's going to be a mess. And Buffalo is the worst matchup in the league for tight ends. They're averaging under three catches and under six fantasy points per game allowed. Only two tight ends have hit double digits on them all year. Henry got 46 yards on him back in week five, and that was one of the better tight end lines that they've given up all year. With every team playing, you should be able to find a higher upside stick of dynamite this week. And if you're hunting for some upside at the position, keep an eye on Mike Geseckki. If T. Higgins sits again, when Higgins has been out, Gisecki has quietly turned into a boomer bust tight end one. That's six for 86 in a score game is exactly the kind of thing that swings a playoff matchup completely. Very low floor, but if you're a big underdog and you need a 20-point miracle, that's the profile you want to chase. I would also maybe look at Darren Waller. Alright, lineups are set. Anxiety level is appropriately raised. Let's talk about the other side of the coin. Try and make some coin. Rolling the dice with Rice, week 15. Quickly, we'll go over last week's card. We went 2-2. Titans plus the points in Cleveland was a loss. They kept it close. It is what it is. Rams, Cardinals over 48.5. That was an easy W. Rams scored 42 by themselves. Texans plus three and a half in Kansas City. They won it outright. That's a big W. And for the locals, Jets plus the points in Miami. Well, you know how that went. That was a disaster. So we're sitting at 32 and 29 on the season. Not printing money, but we're in the green, which is all you can ask for this late in the year. So with all that being said, this week's card is set. Let's run through the plays. Game one, Cardinals at Texans. Texans minus nine and a half. Look, Arizona's cooked. They're counting weeks until they can book vacations. Again, Jacoby Brissett's been a fun fantasy story, but we just talked about it. This matchup is a brick wall. Houston's front is for real. Will Anderson, that whole group, they live in the quarterback's left. They live in the backfield. And the secondary has been locking dudes up all year. I can absolutely see this game going. How a lot of the Texan games have gone as of late. They get up two scores early, and then that defense just starts hunting. Nine and a half is a big number, but it's that classic we're a grown-up playoff team. You are not sit down spot. I'll lay it with Houston. Give me Texans minus nine and a half. Game two, Bills at Patriots, and we're going under 49.5. You guys know, you know how I feel about unders. Life's too short to bet the under. I hate rooting against points. But this one screams snow game, drowned out, heavy hitting, rock fight. Vrabel has the Patriots playing discipline, physical football every week. They're buttoned up, they're prepared. They're not giving you cheap stuff. And on the other sideline, Buffalo knows a division is basically gone, and that they're jockeying for wild card position at this point. Cold, snow, two defenses that can hit and two offenses that can turtle up once things get a little bit tight. I think the Pats D shows up at home, and the Bills offense maybe starts a little slow in the slop. This feels like 23-17. Either way, that keeps us under 50. You might have to sweat it, but I'll plug my nose and take the under. Game three, Panthers at Saints, and we're going over 40 and a half. This is the exact opposite. Quietly, both of these offenses have found something in the past couple weeks. New Orleans might actually like their quarterback right now. And Bryce Young has been slinging it as of late. The Panthers run game has bailed him out in tough spots, and you can see him just starting to look more comfortable behind there. In the dome, fast track, two defenses that are meh at best. This has a sneaky shootout potential. I don't think we need to track me, but we just need competent football. 24-20, that clears it. I like over 40 and a half here. Game four, we're on to the locals. We got the Jets and the Giants. First one, Jets at Jaguars, and I hate to say it, Jags minus 13.5. I've picked the Jets pretty much all year and I've done well with them, but not looking great. We talked about the Jets already. The QB situation is in flux. The run defense just got absolutely bullied by HN. The offense rhythm is a rumor at best. Jacksonville, meanwhile, just grabbed the division lead and they know that Houston is right on their heels. This is a handle your business territory game. You cannot drop a home game to a team that's packing up golf bags, that's looking at a top 10 pick in the draft. 13.5 is massive in the NFL. If you're squeamish, I totally get buying it down to 9.5, 10.5 in a teaser or something. But on the card, I'm going to trust the motivation gap and the matchup. Jags have been nasty against the run, and that's kind of all the Jets have. If the Jets fall behind early and they don't have special teams to bail them out, this could get ugly quick. This could snowball. Give me Jacksonville minus 13.5. Lastly, game five, sticking with the locals, commanders at Giants. And we're rolling Giants minus two and a half. This is my close your eyes and trust the spot game. Giants coming off a bye at home against a division rival that they always seem to play tough against. You guys told me in the poll that I put out, what you want to see first is that the defense shows up and punches someone in the mouth. And on the other side, Washington is without their commander in chief, no pun intended. Jamie Daniels is out, and after tweaking that elbow again, Mariota is capable, but that's still a backup on the road behind a line that's been shaky. The Giants, the Giants have been in pretty much every game this year, and I have been wrong on them all year because of it. So I'm going to lean into the pain and ride with them off the bye. Fresh legs, home crowd, backup QB across the field. Give me Giants minus two and a half. Alright, that's the card. Texans, minus nine and a half. Bills Pats under 49. Panthers Saints over 40. Jags minus 13.5 and Giants minus 2.5. Fantasy lineups are set. Slips are filled out. Stress level is now at a healthy. I might pace my living room for three straight hours level. But from here, we now shift gears into baseball. Because while we were all trying to change the story in fantasy and at the window putting our tickets in, the Mets and the Yankees are out here writing entire new chapters. And not all of them are fun reads. Baseball rants coming up next. Keep it right here. Let's talk some baseball because this is where it's been personal this week. If you're a Mets fan, the winter meetings have basically been a live action therapy session. First Edwin Diaz, now Pete Alonzo, and the Orioles and the Dodgers are out here shopping like it's Black Friday, while the Yankees are standing in the corner arguing about whether the Amex bill can go over$300 million. We're going to start in Queens because that's where the most dominoes have fallen. Back to back days, man. Day one, Edwin Diaz to the Dodgers of all teams. Day two, Pete Alonso to the Orioles. Two of the three guys you'd put on a kid's first Metch jersey in the last decade, gone in 24 hours. And it's not just they left, it's it's it's how they left. Diaz opts out, which we knew was coming. Fine. You already gave him that monster deal, but he had these opt-outs for this exact reason. He comes off a 16-3 ERA, 98 strikeouts in 66 innings, third all-star nod, and all of a sudden you blink, and he's taking three years, 69 million just to go be the hammer on a team that just won back-to-back World Series. Meanwhile, you're sitting there having already given Devin Williams three for 51, and David Stearns steps to the mic and basically says, Yeah, well, you know, once we added that part to the team, it changed the calculus and how things are, and da-da-da-da-da. Yeah. No kidding, it changed the calculus. You nerd. You signed the other closer first. You can't then act shocked when Edwin Diaz looks around and goes, Oh, so I'm the luxury and I'm replaceable. I'm not the priority. Okay, cool. Bet. I mean, you literally watched him walk out the door to a team that, let's be honest, probably had their GM in his ear the whole time, like, hey, go see what you can get from the Mets. Go see what they're really willing to do. Then come back to us and we'll beat it by a couple million and we'll throw in a ring. Any bit. And I don't even blame him. I I mean, I get it. You don't have to run things past the guy who opts out, he's a free agent, but you at least have to, you know, make it known, make it aware that, hey, listen, if you get another offer, we're willing to match it or go higher. I mean, they the report that came out was that there was wiggle room for him, and he just took that deal. So I don't know. I uh he just didn't want to be here. Okay, fine. The craziest part of all this is, and that David Cern needs to get through his head is that like Steve Cohen just sold a gold-plated toilet for uh what, I think 18 million dollars. So David Stearns needs to realize that like money's not an object. Like Steve Cohen is never going to run to you in five years, four years, whatever from now and be like, sorry, we can't sign this starter, or we can't sign this player because remember that closer contract you gave in 2025, or remember that extra year you had to pay? Like, I just don't have the money for it. That's not the case, not even a little bit. Stearns is still wearing the brewer's colored glasses. He's acting like there's this hard line where if we spend here, we can't spend there. Sir, you are not in Milwaukee anymore. Your owner's net worth starts with a Capital B. And he shrugs at a luxury tax that they literally made for him. He's worth$200 billion. That's a hundred piles of a hundred million dollars twice. The job in this chair is knowing when to overpay and saying, yeah, look, it's a little crazy the money that we're giving out, but that's the cost of doing business. That's the cost of free agency. And then Pete, oh God, don't get me started. Pete Alonso, he gives you the rebound season. You sign him on a two-year, one-year opt-out, basically, everybody in the world knowing he's going to opt out, and hitting behind Soto does exactly what it was supposed to do. I mean, he he gives you 272, 347, 524, 38 homers, 126 Ribbies, shortens the swing, the strikeouts were down, he passes Daryl Strawberry, becomes your all-time home run leader at 264. He plays 162 games again, and the reward for him is no offer. Not we tried and came up short, not he took somebody else's more money. Literally, they did not make an offer to him. And the writing was on the wall as soon as they signed Devin Williams. You're going to tell me Devin Williams as your closer and Pete Alonzo, who he hit the monster home runoff of in the playoffs two years ago, were going to get along for 162 games in the in the in the clubhouse. Honestly, I don't even think Stearns wanted him last year. I think that was a full-on Cohen move. Stearns was fully ready to move on from him and rip the band-aid off early last year, but Cohen got yelled at at the uh Mets uh fan appreciation day for Pete Alonso after they just signed Juodo to 15 years. And he said, Hey man, listen, we got to bring him back. So now they brought him back, one year deal, he opts out, and Stearns says, Okay, we're not signing him again. Like, I need to build this team and how I want to build it. And Cohen gave him the leeway. He lengthened the leash to let Stearns be. So he hits the market, right? And watches Schwarber get five years,$150 million from Philly. And the Orioles, the Orioles, go, cool, five for$155. We'll top that by a hair. Come be the grown-up bat in our middle of our lineup. And he takes it. Orioles get a true middle of the order monster, and you add another name to the Mets Hall of guys who should have retired here, but didn't. Doc, Darrell, Seaver, Kuzman, DeGrom, shit, Nimmo. I mean, the list goes on and on and on. And that's the part that stings. Pete chose not to come back. Diaz chose not to come back. Nimmo literally waived a no trade clause to not come back. I mean, at some point you you gotta look around and ask, are we sure that this clubhouse is as healthy as everybody keeps telling us is? I mean, you can only talk about culture so much before guys start answering with their feet and walking out the door. I've always been a huge proponent of where there's smoke, there's fire. And there has been so much smoke coming out of the clubhouse for the past three years with this team. And I threw the poll up on the story. Where are you at with this front office right now? Does Stearns have a plan or are we about to crash out? 25% of you are still on good faith with Stearns. 75% basically said this man is flying the plane with no instruments. And honestly, I hate to say it. I I get both sides. Because here's the truth under the emotion. Take the emotion out of it, take the fandom out of it, take the laundry out of it. Here's the truth. Roster-wise, unfortunately, Alonzo was a weird fit for where they clearly want to go moving forward. Is he a massive producer? Yes, of course. Is he durable? A hundred percent. Is he homegrown, lovable, goofball, LFGM, R guy that we rally behind? Absolutely. But when you look at what they've been building, they got like six guys who need DH bats over the next like five years. You got young bats coming up, a couple guys who could play first. So, and for at least three of the five years in Baltimore, Pete is probably gonna be a full-time DH. So this wasn't a we don't think he's good, we don't think we don't want him in our lineup. This was more of a we want a more flexible roster. And we're not gonna build around a bat-only first baseman into his mid-30s for the next five years. And I can I can understand the logic. That's how you talk yourself into it if you're CERNs, right? You say this core didn't get it done, and we had to rattle the cage, we got to shake the snow globe, we got to change things up. You can't keep doing the same thing over and over and expecting different results. And sometimes leadership means making the move that everybody hates. But if you're gonna rip the band-aid off like that, letting an icon walk, swapping Nim over Simeon, punting on Diaz, then you better have a violent pivot ready. And it has to be more than, hey, we signed another useful reliever and we grabbed an aging veteran at first, or we're gonna put some guys at a position that can kind of play the position stuff. That's not that's not gonna fly. So right now, the board is staring you in the face if you're David Stearns. Arms wise, you're looking at Fran Burvaldez, you're looking at Ranger Suarez, the Asian player, Tatsuyama Imai, and you're looking at Michael King. Bats wise, you're looking at Kyle Tucker, Alex Bregman, Bo Bachet, Cody Bellinger, Monitaka Murakami, the power third baseman first baseman, and Auenio Suarez. And those aren't like rumor mill names. Those are names that were literally spelled out in the what's next for the Mets pieces that got written all day today. The entire league knows that you need a frontline starter and you need serious pop in your lineup. And all of that is still without the potential for trade, trade guys. I mean, the Mets have been linked to trading their young farm system or having the ammo to at least go acquire somebody. I mean, Mackenzie Gore out of Washington, that's a great frontline young starter. I mean, you're gonna have to pay the in division tax, but it's worth it. CJ Abrams, Kaitel Marte, Sandy Alcantaro, Edward Cabrera, and you know, of course, the big one out there floating around, Tariq Scuble. And look, there's been a mountain of reports. Well, maybe not a mountain, but there's been some steady, steady reports out there that the Dodgers are really trying to put together a package for Scoobyl. And if they're even halfway real, those rumors, I'm gonna need I'm gonna need Rob Manford to channel his inner David Stern and veto it like the basketball reasons, Chris Paul to the Lakers trade. You can't let the team that just stole your closer already has Roki Sasaki and just won two straight titles, go and add the Cy Young lefty in his prime. There has to be a uh competitive balance button that you can hit for that. If that happens, just start the labor lockout now. I I I'm not dealing with that. I'm not dealing with the Dodgers getting Tariq Scoobyl. But if we are talking about uh best case absolute fantasy land outcome trades, I think I might have one for the Mets that'll perk Met fans right up. I think what you do is you call San Diego, because there's been rumors about them wanting to move Tatis. You call San Diego and you ask about Tatis and you ask about Mason Miller in some you know mega three team monstrosity deal. You pull that off, you walk out with a bullpen of Devin Williams and Mason Miller and a lineup that runs out Lindor, Tatis, and Soto at you right up the middle. That's that's the Cohen just sold the gold toilet move. That's the I'm here and I want to win a championship in the next five years move. That's the I decided to blow the sport up move. Look, is it realistic? No, probably not. But this is the tier of splash that you're gonna have to be at least aiming for to get Met fans back on board with you, David Stearns. That's the I let all these franchise guys walk off in one season, but I made it up to you. Move. You can't spend October telling me, oh, we're gonna make big swings, we're gonna, we're gonna go after it, we're gonna rebuild this team, we're gonna be competitive. And then come December, you're you're clipping coupons. You're not making offers, you're not throwing your hat in the ring. Right now, from the outside, the story looks like this the Mets talk and act like the Dodgers, but they operate like the Brewers. And with Steve Cohen in your corner, that should literally never be true. Now, on the flip side of all this chaos, how about those Orioles, man? They win the ALEs in 23, and then they backslide to last place in 25. And instead of saying, oh, whoops, that was cute. It was an anomaly, they do something they never do and they pull out the checkbook. They trade for Tyler Ward, giving up uh Grayson Rodriguez, which, you know, one for one. That's a pretty big deal on both sides. They sign Ryan Halesley from the Mets to slam the door in the ninth, and now they drop five years 155 on Pete Alonzo. It's the richest AAV ever for a first free agent first baseman. It's more than Freddie Freeman, more than Kyle Schwarber. It's I congratulate Pete on the contract. I get it. But who if you put Pete next to Gunnar Henderson, Adley Rushman, Jackson Holiday, Westburg, Basalow, that's not the fun, scrappy little rebuild. We got some kids lineup anymore. That's a legit problem. They were 19th in slugging and 21st in OPS last year, and Alonzo walks in with an 871 OPS. StatCast said that if he played all of his games last year in Camden Yards, he would hit 45 bombs instead of 38. This is a team that looked in the mirror after a 75-87 season last year and said, Yeah, you know what? The kids are good, but we're not waiting for them to save us. We're gonna add some grown men to this. And that's what changing the story looks like. While they're doing that, by the way, they're also blocking the Red Sox from landing the first baseman that they wanted. That's division warfare. That's a plan. And they're not done either. Everyone around them is saying that they still need a big frontline starter to pair with Trevor Rogers and Kyle Bradish. So I'm sure they're still going to be active. If they've gone this far, they might as well go all the way in, in for a penny, in for a pound, right? Someone like, oh, I don't know, one of those arms that the Mets are also supposed to be calling about. Look, the the AL East is basically turning into a Thunderdome where everybody has a nuke except the team in the most expensive building in the division, which brings us right across town. I also ran a Yankees poll for you guys. If you could fix one thing, what's the most important thing, the lineup or the bullpen? 60% of you said the lineup, 40% of you said the bullpen, and Brian Cashman, while he's sort of trying to do both while also playing accountant. He's out here saying, yeah, the roster's actually in pretty good shape. We we don't have that much to do. You know, we'd like to get Cody Bellinger back, fix the two left-handed thing while we're at it. But it'd be nice if we could also get that payroll under$300 million from the$319 million we spent last year. Meanwhile, your lineup is already left heavy with Jazz, Grisham, Austin Wells, Ben Rice, Ryan McMahon. You still desperately need bullpen help after last year's collapse, and you lost Devin Williams, who lost the closing spot but turned it up later in the season. And the rest of your division is adding impact bats and high, high leverage arms while you're counting pennies on the border between 299 and 301. And the the Bellinger thing is hilarious, too, because on paper, he he's exactly what you should want. Lefty bat who crushes lefties. He had a 909 OPS and 18 homers a Yankee Stadium. He plays center, he plays first, but the problem is you're already too left-handed. And the bullpen is barren, and to get him, you've probably got to go in another 150 million plus to the conversation. This is my point with the theme. Who actually has a plan? Well, the Orioles clearly do, the Blue Jays clearly do. The Yankees, the Yankees feel like they're trying to coupon clip their way into contention while the rest of the division is in an arms race. And the Mets, the Mets are at a fork in the road where either they look back and say, Man, Stearns, Stearns really did see the long view. He was playing chess, not checkers. Or, or we add his name to the very long list of guys who thought they were the smartest in the room and left a smoking crater behind. And here's the twist to remember with all this. The Mets, again, can actually mess with the Yankees' plan now. You know, they stole Soto last year. There's a very real world where they pivot from losing Alonzo and say, okay, fine, we'll go get Cody Bellinger and we'll have him play first and some left field for us. Take the bat from the Yankees, stick them next to Soto and Lindor, and suddenly you're the one changing the story while they explain to the beat writers why the budget came up short yet again. So yeah, on the surface, this week feels like pure pain for Mets fans. Diaz gone. Alonzo gone. Nemo already out the door. Not much faith in Stearns. Another winter where the headlines are Mets lose Star X instead of Mets gain star Y. But it it doesn't have to end this way. This can either be the chapter where the story turns and they start acting like the team their owner's bank account says they are, or it's the chapter where we lock in that narrative that homegrown Mets stars don't finish their career here ever. Changing the story is about decisions. The Oriol decided to swing big. The Yankees are still deciding what they care more about, trophies or thresholds, and the Mets the Mets are on the clock. You've cleared the deck, you've got the money, and now you got holes the size of flushing bay to fill. Go show everybody that you actually do have a plan. So that's that's that's where I'm at with the Mets and this whole winter meeting circus. The Dodgers and the Orioles are out here writing bold new chapters. The Yankees are still storyboarding, and the Mets are standing in front of a blank page pretending it's a masterpiece, trying to sell me that you're Bob Ross. Speaking of people trying to control their narrative, on the other side of the break, I want to talk about Notre Dame throwing a full-on tantrum because the store didn't go the way they wanted. You duck a conference for a decade, you lose to Miami, and then you're shocked when the ACC promotes Miami. Cool. We usually don't do a lot of college football on this program, but this is a story worth talking about. Keep it right here. But before we land this thing, I gotta get into this Notre Dame debacle. I gotta get this thing off my chest because sticking with the theme, this is exactly what I mean when I talk about changing the story versus actually having a plan. Notre Dame didn't just get snubbed and move on. They turned it into this full-blown PR tour meltdown. And honestly, they look awful. So quick reset in case you missed everything. Notre Dame and Miami both finish 10-2. The committee sits down, looks at the resumes, looks at the metrics, and then crazy concept here, looks at the fact that Miami beat Notre Dame head to head to open the season. The committee chair flat out said it. When those two got close on the board, they went back, they re-watched the game, and head to head was the tiebreaker. Miami gets the 10 seed, Notre Dame drops to 11, and that's the ball game. That's not a conspiracy. That's literally how they tell you the system is supposed to work. Who beats who? But instead, Pete Bavakwa, that's a tough name to say, comes out like someone stole his parking spot. He's been saving for his wife all day. Press conferences, TV hits, did a forty minute QA on campus saying this felt like musical chairs at a fifth grade birthday party, talking about permanent damage to the relationship with the ACC, saying the league. Ran a targeted social media campaign against Notre Dame because the ACC account posted Miami vs. Notre Dame graphics and the ACC network replayed the game a bunch of times. My brother in Christ, they replayed the game because it mattered. And you lost it. And then you got ACC commissioner Jim Phillips coming out like, oh, we're just doing our job. We're advocating for all 17 football members, which is exactly what he's supposed to say, by the way. But Brett Yormack from the Big 12 doesn't even wait to get home before he starts cooking Notre Dame. He's on stage at the forum calling Bavakwa egregious, reminding everybody that the ACC literally saved Notre Dame during COVID by bringing them in as a full football member so that they could play a real schedule, and they still made the playoffs in 2020. So on one side, you've got you choose to be independent, you choose to not play for a conference title, you lost head-to-head to Miami, and on the other side, you've got the ACC posted too much about the hurricanes, and now my feelings are hurt. And then the part that really bothers me with this whole story, which is the reason that I really wanted to get into it on the podcast, they pull out of the bowl game entirely. That's where it goes from like salty to selfish. Because this isn't just about, I don't know, an AD and a head coach being mad about a ranking and thinking they got snubbed. This is about seniors who thought they had one more game with their brothers. This is about those fifth-year guys in the walk-ons who were dreaming of 15 snaps on national TV as the one real piece of tape that they'll ever have. This is about freshmen who grew up watching Notre Dame in January and wanted to be a part of that. Even if it is just the fucking Pop Tart Bowl. Instead of giving the kids the last week together, instead of giving those walk-ons and those seniors and all those brothers that sacrificed and put their body on the line that one more chance to put the helmet on and go to war. No, the grown-ups decided, nah, no playoff season's over. Pack it up. We don't care. We're doing this out of protest. I mean, imagine being in that locker room. You gave everything. You finished 10 and 2. You did what you were asked to do. And what? Because the adults at the top are throwing a tantrum about Miami getting in over them. You don't get the goodbye that you earned that you spent your college career doing, wanting. I mean, that's brutal. And it's not on the ACC or the committee or social media. This is 100% an in-house choice. And here's the irony. Bavak was not wrong about everything. The one thing he said that actually makes sense is the idea of going to a 16-team playoff. You get five auto bids, you get 11 at large, more access, you get more storylines, you keep the regular season important. I'm in on that. I think a lot of us are. You want to push for more. You don't want it to turn into a NCAA March Madness 64-person tournament, but I think 16 is a good number. You want to push for more transparency from the community, from the committee, clearer criteria on what to get in. I'm in on all that. But it's so hard to take you seriously as a reform guy when at the same time you're lighting up the ACC for promoting a team that won the head-to-head matchup. And you're refusing to play in the bowl game that you opted into through your agreement with that conference. This is the cost of the Notre Dame brand they never want to talk about. You want to be Alabama without the conference. Cool. You want the NBC deal. You get the cool factor. You get the independence. You get to dip into ACC scheduling when it's convenient for you. But you don't get the safety net of a league title game. You don't get to lose to Miami in August and then cry foul in December when the results actually mattered. You chose the tightrope. The whole sport knows the rules of the tightrope. Sometimes you land on the right side, like 2020, when the ACC bent over backwards for you and you made the playoff. Sometimes you land on the wrong side, like this year. When the team that beat you gets in and you're the first one out. And that's the bigger theme for today. That's the theme. Are you owning your reality or are you trying to rewrite rewrite it after the fact? The Jets, who knows? Maybe no plan. Who cares? The Mets, we hope there's a plan. Notre Dame, they don't want a plan. They want veto power over the ending. You can't talk about changing the story and then duck the last chapter because it doesn't fit the version in your head. Sometimes the story is what it is. You lost the game in August, and it came back to bite you in the ass in December. You eat it, you show up, you play the Pop Tarts bowl, you send your guys out the right way, and then in the offseason, you go scream your head off about playoff expansion to the mountaintops. But no. Instead, they slam the door, and the players are the ones standing in the hallway. Alright, I had to get that off my chest. Deep breaths. We'll take a quick pause, we'll reset the blood pressure, and then we'll start landing this plane. We'll land this episode. We'll get you out of here. And that's gonna do it for this week's run, man. We hit on a lot of different versions of the same question today. Who actually has a plan? And who's just hoping the story magically fixes itself? The Jets. Jets are still looking for a quarterback and a playoff birth certificate. The Giants are trying to talk themselves into that we're gonna be a problem after the bye. And the Texans are bullying people like it's a team that actually knows what it is. Checked in on the fantasy siccos, the playoff stress, some ridiculous one-seed matchups, and we talked ourselves into a JJ McCarthy and Chris Rodriguez start. Like that's not gonna age terribly by Sunday night. Also rolled the dice with Rice. We put a little faith in Houston, the under in a snowy AFC rock fight, points in the dome, and the locals card. We're all Jags and Giants. If you ride with me, bet responsibly, maybe even sneak in a little emotional hedge there. Then on to the big one. Another homegrown Matt leaves town, and we're all just staring there at Davis Cerns like, please tell me you brought a blueprint for this and not just like a vibes board. The Orioles pushing all their chips in, the AL East is getting meaner, and the Yankees are pretending that the luxury tax is a horror movie monster. Lastly, we close it up with Notre Dame, throwing a tantrum instead of lining up and playing one more game for the kids in that locker room. A perfect example of trying to rewrite the story instead of owning the one that you lived. If you listened all the way through, I appreciate you more than you know. If you're new here, hit follow, drop a rating, share the show with a friend who screams at their Kiwi the same way that you do. Make sure you tap in on Instagram too. Hop in on the polls, send a mailbag question, all the stuff that genuinely helps this thing grow. It's gonna be at Rice on the Radio, just how it's spelled. More importantly, and always to close the show, make sure you spread some good energy this week. Be kind to the people working holiday hours, tip where you can, and as always, tell someone that you love them. I am Ian Rice. This has been episode 43 of Rice on the Mics, and I'll catch you next time. Same time, same place.