Lottery Tickets & Lost Seasons

We sort the chaos of December sports: Jets and Giants frustration, why tanking is a myth, the NFL’s shifting power, fantasy semifinal traps, a pragmatic Week 16 betting card, the Knicks’ NBA Cup and how to make it matter more, plus a Mets therapy session and college QB stock watch. The throughline is simple: you can’t game the future, only your next decision.

• Jets’ collapse, coaching shakeup, Burrow speculation
• Giants’ close losses, draft-slot angst, QB flashes
• Tanking as lottery tickets, alignment over slogans
• Bills comeback, Mahomes ACL, Garrett’s record chase
• Week 16 spotlight games that expose quit vs grit
• Fantasy semifinal landmines and matchup logic
• Five betting picks with rationale and risk framing
• Knicks’ NBA Cup win, banner talk, fan-first tweaks
• Mets departures, Dodgers deferrals, front-office intent
• College quarterbacks using the playoff to move draft stock

If you enjoyed the episode, please share it with a friend. Hit follow, jump in on the Wednesday mic checks on Instagram, DM me your takes, your rants, your mailbag questions, anything. All of it can be found at Rice on the Radio on Instagram, on Twitter, on TikTok, whatever. It’s at Rice on the Radio.

Chapters

• 0:00 Setting The Holiday Sports Stakes
• 4:05 Jets Spiral And Burrow Rumors
• 8:21 Giants Agony And Draft Dread
• 12:11 The Case Against Tanking
• 15:08 Wild NFL Week: Comebacks And Injuries
• 21:11 Week 16 Games That Reveal True Grit
• 26:33 Fantasy Semis: Avoid The Landmines
• 33:12 Rolling The Dice With Rice: Week 16 Card
• 40:53 Knicks Win The NBA Cup And What It Means
• 49:25 Mets Therapy: Departures, Deferrals, Direction
• 1:11:25 College QBs, Playoffs, And Draft Stock
• 1:23:04 Closing Truths And Community Callouts

Transcript

SPEAKER_00: 0:00

I guess there's only one way to find out was to do it too, right?

SPEAKER_01: 0:12

Here we are, ladies and gentlemen. We have hit that time of the year on the sports calendar that is just a weird stretch of emotions. The standings are saying playoff push, the calendar is saying family drama and holiday gifts, and yet your team's body language is saying we've already packed a car and we're halfway to the airport. Welcome back to Rice on the Mics. I am Ian Rice, and this week is the warm-up lap before the holidays. We're gonna figure out who's actually still pushing the pace, who's just coasting in the outside lane, and honestly, how much more pain you can take realistically as a fan before you just tap out. Because really, if you're a fan of the New York locals, look around. The Jets just got absolutely dog walked in Jacksonville. Wilkes gets canned, Brady Cook is out here throwing souvenir picks, and now he's starting again in New Orleans. And as for the Giants, well they keep playing just well enough to break your heart and ruin your draft position at the same time. Once again, same movie, different year. We'll dive deeper into both locals later, and then we'll roll into something a little bit bigger than I think I've been thinking about this week. And that's that tanking doesn't actually work. Look, every draft pick is a scratch-off lottery ticket. Tank for Tua turned into Tua got benched for Quinn Ewers. It's all darts at a board. Around the league, we got some big names going down for the year. Mahomes tears his ACL, Michael Parsons tears his ACL, the big red machine chiefs are finally out of the playoffs officially. The Bengals get shut out at home, and Joe Burrow is talking like he either wants to retire or he needs to force his way out of Cincy. We'll also touch on a couple games from last week, including that Bill's comeback down 21 and the Colt Seahawks. Old Man Rivers almost did it. Then we'll shift into week 16 look ahead with some real season shaping games. From there, it's on to Fantasy Samis if you're still in and rolling the dice with Rice. We'll talk lineup landmines so you don't die with the wrong guy in your flex. And I got a fresh slate of picks for you, including both locals, plus a Texas Raiders number that looks disgusting in the best way possible. On the hardwood, the Knicks win the NBA Cup. They decide not to hang a banner and still somehow break the internet. I want to get into what the cup actually means, why calling it Fugazy is just lazy, and a couple tweaks that I'd like to make to get fans more invested in. Also, Mikhail Bridges might literally be the first dude to play 83 games in an 82-game season. Baseball-wise, it's gonna be a full Mets therapy session this week. Diaz gone, Nimo gone, Alonzo gone, Dodgers deferring money until the sun burns out. Stearns is sitting on a plan that we just can't see yet, apparently. And Yankee fans quietly sweating and biting their nails off while pretending that they're above it all. And that Cashman will get it done. We'll get into all of it, and before we close the show, we'll land the player with a quick college football hit. Mendoza winning the Heisman, Indiana beating Ohio State, the college football playoffs starting up. And how a couple of these quarterbacks could play themselves from maybe I'll come back next year to you'd be insane not to declare the shit. Lots to get into, lots of emotions to sort out. This is the warm-up lap before the holidays. So let's see who's still running hard and who's mentally in sweatpants. Let's do it to it. Alright, let's start with the locals because that kind of sets the mood for the whole league conversation anyway. The Jets. The Jets, man. That Jacksonville game wasn't that wasn't just a loss. That was a get your manhood checked type of afternoon. Trevor Lawrence looked like he was on rookie mode in Madden. Six total touchdowns. The Jags scored touchdowns on their first three drives, the first time since 1998. Tom Kaufman might have been coaching, I think. And the Jets were down 14-0 before they even picked up a first down in this game. Brady Cook gets his first start. Cool story. Undrafted dude. First undrafted free agent to start for the Jets since the 70s, by the way. And it's like, yeah, all right, here's your prize. A top-scoring defense, a hostile road crowd. And by the way, we're immediately in a hole. He gets the touchdown to Ed and I Mitchell. Great moment. They save the ball, the hole works. But after that, it's three picks and a whole lot of welcome to the league, kid. Defensively, it it was it wasn't much better either. It was the same disaster we've been watching for the last two weeks. Miscommunications, miss tackles, just flat out getting out physical. To the point where Aaron Glenn fires Steve Wilkes, who he handpicked, by the way, and basically comes out after the game and says, X's and O's are not the problem. I'm evaluating the character of the guys in this room. That's about as loud as a coach can say some of you have checked out and you're on notice without literally saying it. And that's where this week in New Orleans gets weird because the Saints have kind of found themselves as of late. They're at least competent now. The offense isn't the joke it was at the start of the season, and it's looking like they might have actually maybe found something at quarterback, at least something serviceable at quarterback. And they're still playing like a team that wants to be taken seriously. Meanwhile, the Jets, they look like a team that they can't wait for the offseason. Cook is starting again this week over Fields and Tyrod. You got a new DC, you got Glenn trying to reset the tone again, and it's it's one of those games where you could totally see the Jets doing the annoying Jets thing, right? Playing just well enough to keep it close, special team scores, keep you right on the edge of your seat, maybe even cover, but they still lose, and they're leaving everybody in that weird headspace of do I root for wins or do I root for the draft? What am I supposed to do here? And the other layer on top of this, the Joe Burrow chatter that's been going around this week, if you missed it, he did a press conference in the middle of the week, and he basically looked disheveled, and he said he's not in the right head space. He, you know, he's trying he's having a hard time trying to find fun in football. And he went directly asked about it if he would play for another team other than Cincy. He said crazy things happen every year. So you can see why Jet fans' brains instantly went, Do we dare dream? Do we dare go down this road yet again? I mean, look, I I I don't think it's imminent or anything, and the cost to get him would be huge. But this is this is where the Jets are. This is why you got all those picks at the trade deadline. To be able to make a move if you so choose. You've got one eye on Brady Cook seeing if maybe you lucked into something. You've got one eye on the college football playoff seeing if there's uh any stud rookie that you want to draft or move up to draft or whatever, and then you got a third eye on some imaginary trade machine where you can make a blockbuster for a proven commodity to save your franchise. It's it's so many factors to try and negotiate and minutia details to work out, but this is why you are where you are, and this is why you haven't made the playoffs in 15 years. But hopefully this regime seems to be making a step in the right direction. And then you flip it over to the Giants, and somehow it is the same frustration as the Jets, just a different flavor. We had chocolate, now we're getting a little vanilla, we're getting a little strawberry. So they lose this week to Washington 29-21. That's eight straight losses. They haven't won a game since October 9th. And yet, yet, they are in every game. Drops at the worst possible moments, one or two boneheaded plays, and then you look at the record and you go, how are we two and twelve? Jackson Dart actually showed you some stuff again, too. 246 yards, two touchdowns, one to Tracy, one to Wandell Robinson. Should have had another guy dropped in the end zone. And yeah, the interception hurts, but you can see the flashes. This isn't just some zombie offense where the guy can't play and they're making it work. He's showing you that he can play in this league and he's doing it with his two best weapons in street clothes on the sideline in a season that's been over since Halloween. And then on top of it, you get the weird moment where he gets yanked and thrown into the blue tent after a designed run in the fourth. And even he was like, I I didn't feel like it was that big of a hit. I didn't feel like I got hit. And after watching the replay, he wasn't the one who got hit. It was the defenseman. They collided together. But that's where we're at with him now. Between the Chicago concussion and the spotters, I mean the league definitely sent out a memo to them to keep an eye on a budding superstar in a major market. They're gonna be over cautious with his head. They're gonna be over cautious with him. Which, to be fair, for the long term is probably the right move, even if it drives Giant fans insane in the moment, seeing Jameis warm up. The good sign, he actually slid a few times, and Kafka even called it out. I know it sounds small, but for a young quarterback, learning I don't have to be a hero on every scramble is actually real growth. I mean, the talent is there, the understanding of the game is there. You just gotta work out of the hard-headedness for him. You gotta get rid of the stubbornness for him. So now this week you get the Vikings rolling into MetLife. Minnesota's 6-8, but they were already eliminated before they even kicked off last week. And they still went into Dallas and pretty much stomped on the Cowboys season. JJ McCarthy threw for 250 and two touchdowns. He ran one in himself. They've now won two straight and they're playing hard for O'Connell. And they're getting a Giants team that in classic Giants fashion is sitting with the number one overall pick right now, and they probably still will find a way to play themselves out of it. Minnesota will probably choke when they get to Jersey. Then next week there's a Raiders game coming that will ultimately decide who drafts number one if the Giants lose this week. And then you close the season at home against Dallas, they'll probably find a way to steal that one too. All of a sudden, they're picking fourth or fifth instead of first. And it's the same movie every year with them. They suck for four months, the season's over by October, and then suddenly they get weirdly frisky the last three weeks and they ruin their draft slot. So you get the frustration, right? You you understand it. But you also hear Herm Edwards in the back of your head, you play to win the game. Players and coaches are not out here tanking. They're trying to put good tape out there so they actually stay employed. And this leads me perfectly into my next point. Why I think tanking actually doesn't work. Look, this is where I'm at, right? Tanking is fake for lack, lack of a better word. It's it's vibes for front offices and fans that want to play GM from their couch, right? Players don't tank, coaches don't tank, and even when teams do it organizationally by trying to put a bad product on the field, it's way more of a gamble than anybody wants to admit. Think about all the years that we talked about this for suck for luck or tank for Tua or Lose for Caleb. Look, there's there's always one guy that the bad teams are supposed to build their entire long-term misery franchise around. And yes, sometimes it hits. Sometimes you get Joe Burrow, sometimes you get Patrick Mahomes, sometimes you get Trevor Lawrence, you get a guy that pulls you out of the ditch. But more often than not, it looks like what's happening in Miami right now. That whole tank for Tua thing, yeah, five years later, the dude just got benched for Quinn Ewers on a six and eight team that's eliminated in mid-December. They gave Tua four years,$212 million extension, and he led the league in passing for like 15 minutes. And now McDaniels is up there saying quarterback play wasn't good enough, everything's on the table. We think Quinn gives us the best chance to win. Shout out Zach Wilson, by the way, who gets just completely passed over. That's the thing that nobody likes to say out loud, right? Every draft pick is just a lottery ticket.

SPEAKER_00: 13:55

That's it.

SPEAKER_01: 13:57

You're throwing darts at a board and praying you hit the bullseye at the same time that your coaching staff, your front office, your ownership, and your cap management all just happen to line up and be competent. And then you're praying that five years from now, after you have to pay this guy, your franchise savior isn't getting benched for a seventh-round rookie while everyone starts running cap calculators on his dead money. So when Jet fans or Giant fans or whoever get into this space of we have to lose these last couple games for insert quarterback name here, look, I I get the emotion. I understand why it makes sense to put yourself in the best position possible. But the truth is, the real truth, you have no idea who's actually gonna pan out. You just hope that your front office is smart enough to keep throwing darts until they finally hit one and build pieces around him. Okay. Tanking, soapbox gone. I'm done. Let's zoom out. There were a couple games from around the league this week that are definitely worth getting into. And I want to start with the Bills Patriots game. Oh boy, this was one of those games where if you're Buffalo, it kind of feels like you just hit the reset button on your season. You were down 21-0 in Foxboro, snow coming down, Drake May's been carving you up. Trevion Henderson looks like he's on a personal, I told you I'm the best running back on this team tour, and you come all the way back to win 35-31. Josh Allen only throws for 193, by the way. But he got three touchdowns. James Cook goes for over 100 yards on the ground, and he scores the go-ahead touchdown. Dawson Knox finds the end zone twice, and it's the third time this year that they've climbed out of a double-digit hole that their defense has put them in. It it keeps the division alive. They're one game back of New England instead of letting the Pats celebrate an AFC East Crown in their face. And it sets up this week's 16 Browns game where you're just not just trying to clinch a playoff spot, you're also not trying to be a trivia question in Miles Garrett's sack record. Because don't look now, Garrett's sitting at 21 and a half sacks. By the way, that's more than the Jets have as a team, that's more than the Niners have as a team. And he's one off-tying stray hand in TJ Watt's single season record. He's had a sack in eight straight games. And now, now does he get? He gets Josh Allen, who holds the ball, he extends plays, and he's also been sacked 33 times this year. You can tell both sides know exactly what this is. Allen literally said he's like, I I like watching highlight tapes. I don't like being the guy that's in someone else's highlight tape. And Schwartz is basically saying the same thing. He said, we want them to have to throw. Because if they do, we like our odds. Next game on the list from week 15 was the Chargers Chiefs game. And this one, this one felt like the end of an era. KC loses 16-13. They're officially out of the playoffs. The AFC West run is done and over. The conference title game streak is done and over. And on top of it, Patrick Mahomes blows out his ACL and his LCL with under two minutes left in the game. Had surgery in Dallas. Everything goes well, and they're already talking timelines. Roughly nine months is like the ballpark usually for an ACL. So, of course, the immediate question is, is he gonna be ready for week one? Blah blah blah blah. And Reed has to put out the fires. He's out there doing what he should do. He'll attack rehab. There have been great quarterbacks who rehab this injury and came back fine. Tom Brady's on his podcast turning into Dr. PT, telling Mahomes, don't live in rehab mode. Get back into training mode as fast as you can. And look, you know, it makes sense. If there's anybody you want to take uh advice from on an ACL, it's Brady. Had three rings towards ACL, won another three. So it all makes sense. But emotionally in the league, you can feel that shift. For the first time in, God, what, a decade, I guess. The Chiefs are just kind of another team in the pack this offseason. No deep run, no Super Bowl, just a long rehab and a lot of cap questions. And a backup, Gardner Minshew, by the way, Gardner Minshew sighting, trying his best to drag them over the finish line. Next game, Colts at Seahawks, and Phillip Rivers, our boy, Mr. 44-year-old grandfather himself. He almost did it. He hasn't taken a hit in five years. He gets the call after Daniel Jones tears his Achilles. They sign him to the practice squad on Tuesday. He practiced Wednesday, and by Sunday, he's starting in Seattle in one of the loudest buildings in the league, wearing Daniel Jones' number 17. And honestly, I gotta say, he looked weirdly fine. I mean, you could clearly see his arm wasn't what it was, but to be fair, it never was really a rocket either. But he goes 18 for 27, 120 yards, throws a touchdown to Josh Downs. He manages the game exactly how Shane Steigen wanted it. Protection right, no dumb risks, chew the clock out, keep them off the field, lead into the run. They hold the ball, they're up 10, they set up a 60-yard field goal with 47 seconds left, and the kicker drills it. Colt's sideline went nuts. And you're like, shit, there's the movie. Here it is. He's gonna do this. And then good old Sam Darnold. He just goes into full chaos merchant mode. Seattle moves at twenty five yards and two plays. Jason. Myers hits the 56 yard game winner, and it's a gut punch. Rivers, full credit, immediately backing that. I'm grateful to be here. I'm happy to be here. This is great. But I'm pissed we lost the game mode. He got emotional at the podium, too, adding out some words of wisdom to these young pups. So look, he knows he can still play enough to give them a shot. The problem is the Colts' margin for error is non-existent. The schedule coming up is literally Niners, Jags, Texans. All three of those are playoff teams. And you got to get at least two of those wins. Last game I want to go over from this week, Packers at Broncos. And this is the other side of the same AFC coin. A team that actually looks like it's peaking at the right time. Green Bay comes in, they jump on him early, and then defensive player of the year last year, Passer Tan, flips the game. His first interception of the season on a defense that's been playing elite all year long. The Broncos are down nine. Packers have scored on their first five possessions, and Sertan changes the whole thing. Christian Watson goes up and Sertan just steals the ball right from him. And from that point on, it was all Denver. Jordan Love barely throws for 30 yards in the second half. Meanwhile, Bo Knicks goes for four touchdowns, and the Broncos log up their 11th straight win, 12th straight at home. That's a wagon, man. That defense is real. And it's all happening while their best player on offense is a rookie quarterback and their signature star is the reigning defensive player of the year. That's what it looks like when your drafted elite guy actually hits, and your coaching and your roster and your defense are all synced up at the same time. Meanwhile, for the Packers, it's it's the loss wasn't enough. It's more pain. You lose the game after being up, and then you find out you lose Micah Parsons to an ACL. Season's over, sack streak over. He had five straight years of 12 plus sacks. And honestly, because they how they handle ACL recoveries, there's a real chance he might miss maybe the first month of next year, too. That's a massive swing for a team that made a big boy move this offseason getting what they thought was the last piece they needed to make a run for a Super Bowl. So now going forward, because the show goes on, I got a couple games for you to circle that fit our whole who's still running hard versus who's checked out theme this week. And it starts, it stays with the Packers. Packers at Bears. And this one is basically a wild card elimination game, to be honest with you. Whoever loses pretty much drops to the bottom of that entire mess. And the optics are gonna be ugly for somebody one way or the other. Somebody choked this whole thing away. Chicago's finally earning some respect. Some teams are starting to take them a little bit more seriously. The defense is playing better. The run game keeps showing up week to week. Caleb has actually been looking a little more comfortable in the pocket, and now you get the Packers team that just got bullied by Denver and lost Parsons, lost their pass rush. That changes how confident you feel dropping back. It's gonna be one of those cold divisional who blinks first type of games. And I actually have this game on my card for the rolling the dice with Rice segment. So we'll definitely come back to it and get into it a little more detail later. But it's definitely a game you want to keep an eye on this week. Another game you want to keep an eye on, sticking with the Bills. You got Bills at Browns. And it might be my favorite weird game on the board. On one sideline, you got Josh Allen trying to clinch a spot, trying to make a play for the division, also trying to be the first guy ever with 300 total touchdowns before 30 years old. And on the other side, you got a player chasing something himself too. You got Miles Garrett chasing history on a six and whatever Browns team that's bad on offense, but a nightmare to block. Buffalo leads the league in rushing as a team right now. And a lot of that is James Cook. A lot of that is Allen. Cleveland's been a little leaky the last month or so on the run. But if the Browns can find a way to get this into some obvious passing downs, force Allen to drop back 35, 40 times, let Garrett in that front hunt, there's definitely a possibility that Garrett could be a game record here and make some noise. Buffalo's good, but they could be had. Now flip it around. You also got Shador Sanders on the Brown side making just his fifth start, coming off his worst game as a pro. Three picks for Chicago. I know that defense is good, but not great. He's been under siege behind yet another new offensive line combo. Guys just stay hurt and shifting around. And now he has to keep up with an offense that if you blink, they'll put up 30 in a quarter on you. So again, all this just shows how fragile the tank for the future logic really is. Look, Cleveland thought they had their long term answer already before this rebuild inside of a rebuild inside of whatever, whatever Cleveland's always trying to do with a quarterback. And here they are, back again. Square one, rookie quarterback land, trying to evaluate if they have something while also trying to find a spot in the draft, maybe grab another one, and you have players on your team chasing records. Last game on the list you should keep your eye on this week: a good old 2010 matchup. Uh Patriots at Ravens. This is a fun clash for the narratives. It really is. New England, even if they're losing, they stroll in 11-3, undefeated on the road, they lead the division. And Vegas looks at it and goes, cool, we'll take the Ravens minus two and a half.

SPEAKER_00: 26:09

And I kind of get it, to be honest with you.

SPEAKER_01: 26:11

It sounds stupid. They're begging you to bet the Patriots, but I kind of get it. On paper, the the Patriots record is sparkling. But really the quality wins list is super thin. Their only win over a team that is currently a winning record is one of the Bills games.

SPEAKER_00: 26:30

That's it.

SPEAKER_01: 26:32

Meanwhile, the Ravens are 7-7, and they've they've been weirdly bad at home, which is rare for them, but there's this underlying fear factor of Lamar and that defense and that building in prime time. It's got its own breadth to it. Layer on top of that, that Derrick Henry gets a matchup against his old coach Mike V Mike Vrabel. That's just fun football, man. Vrabel coached him in Tennessee for years. So he knows every little nuance. He knows when he wants to bounce. He knows when he wants to cut back and how he builds speed and how he uses that stiff arm. And Henry, you know, Henry's talking about saying the right thing, talking about how good of a coach he is and how well they're doing, how they're in the mix and for the top seed. And blah, blah, blah, blah, blah. It's very respectful. But you know what, man? These guys are all competitors. You know deep down that he would love nothing more than to run through one of those linebackers and drop a 180 rush a yard game on him. So Drake man gets the Sunday night stage, and he has been one of the best deep ball throwers in the league this year. He's literally right next to Stafford in 20 plus yard completions. But Lamar, even still working his way back from the hammy. But he he says he's fine, and he said every game from now on is a playoff game. We lose, we're out. So yeah, if the Ravens lose, they're 7-8, and you've been bad at home, and it starts to feel like this whole year just slipped away from you. But if the Patriots lose, that's back-to-back blown opportunities, and the door for Buffalo to win the division gets a little bit wider. So that's where we are with the league. That's where the league sits for me right now, at least. The locals are giving you maximum frustration and maximum what does the future at quarterback look like? The so-called tanking teams are learning the hard way that there's no guaranteed savior coming ever. The old powers like Kansas City are suddenly mortal, dealing with real injuries and actually have some free time in January. And you got guys like Garrett Wilson and Sertan quietly having all-time seasons while they're screaming about everything else. From here, we're gonna pivot into fantasy because if your real team is cooked, your fantasy team might be the only thing holding your football sanity together right now. And then from there, we'll go into the rolling the dice with rice segment. We'll talk about our picks, we'll talk about who we like, try and make you some money this week, how to actually make some of this chaos work in your favor on your betting slide. Keep it right here, fantasy and picks up next. Time to put the helmets back on and time to take the wallets out. We're in the semis now, which means two groups of people are listening to this. One, the sickos are still alive, and two, the equally sickos who got bounced early, but are hate watching everybody else's lineup decisions. So if you made it, congratulations. If you got bounced, hey, I've been there. There's always some DFS and ruining your friends' waiver wire with bad advice, too. The group saying that we have in my 16-man league is good luck, draft better. And that's something we always try to live by. Either way, this part of the year isn't really about who's my sleeper anymore. It's mostly about not stepping on a landmine in your lineup. I mean, the worst feeling in fantasy is rolling with a name brand you kinda didn't trust, and then watching them only drop seven points while someone on your bench goes for 22. So let's go through some of those guys that feel like automatic starts, but could absolutely blow up your week. And I want to preface this by saying I'm not saying bench all of them no matter what, don't play these guys. It's a bad decision. What I'm saying is if you have a real alternative, this is where you can think twice with these guys. So, first on the list, we'll start off with our quarterback. And I hate to say it because it's my quarterback, and I gotta do what I gotta do, but Dak Prescott versus the Chargers. So, look, Dak, if you if you survived last week with him, God bless you. I did. He only put up 12 fantasy points at home, 294 yards, zero touchdowns, they're running the ball a lot more, nothing on the ground from either. But the week before that, 376 yards, one touchdown, two picks, still somehow under 20 fantasy points in a smash spot versus Detroit. He was averaging over two passing touchdowns a game through the first three months, and now he's got three total over his last three weeks. And now he gets the Chargers. And I know, I know your brain still sees that powder blue, and you think shootout, but the numbers say otherwise now. Second fewest fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks all year, fewest passing touchdowns allowed all year, and they've only given up four passing touchdowns in their last six games. Over the last two months, quarterbacks are averaging under nine fantasy points against them. So unfortunately, if your choice is Dak versus Justin Herbert or Jordan Love Goff type, fine. You're probably gonna ride it out. But if you have a legit top ten option sitting there, this is one of those weeks where you might you're allowed to swallow your pride a little bit and say, I know you got me here, but I'm not gonna go down with this particular ship this week. Once we get to the finals, we'll see how it goes. As far as uh running backs, I got two for you. Ash and Jantey versus the Texans. And I know, just like me, also, I know a lot of you drafted him like he was gonna be the rookie year Saquon. A top 20 pick, all the buzz, highlight clips all summer. And look, he hasn't been a total bust. He's actually RB16 on the year, which is surprising. He's got about 14 PPR points a game, but he has cooled off exactly when you cannot afford it. His last three weeks, he's only averaging 2.8 yards per carry and like eight points per game fantasy-wise. So now what does he get? He gets Houston. You get a Texans defense that has been legitimately top ten in fewest fantasy points, allowed to running backs all year. They barely give up 70 rushing yards a game. Half a touchdown over the last month. And that's not like just facing random guys either. That's Jonathan Taylor and James Cook that they're putting those stats up against. So, look, most of you, including myself, are probably still gonna have to start them. Volume is volume. But this is not set it and forget it, running back one territory. This is he's an RB2, and I need to mentally prepare myself for 11 carries, 43 yards, and hopefully he catches a screen pass touchdown. The other running back on the list, Jalen Warren versus the Lions. And this one hurts because we all love the guy. The problem is Kenneth Gainwell has basically walked in and taken his lunch money. Last week, Warren had 12 carries, 33 yards, three catches, 15 yards. Meanwhile, over the last five weeks, Gainwell is averaging 14 touches a game and 18 fantasy points per game. He he's their best pass game weapon right now, and he's living in that five to six catch, 40-ish yards range through the air every week. But Warren in that same stretch has 10 total catches. He's only ever cleared 15 receiving yards in one game. So now you drop that split backfield into a matchup with the Lions this week, who are giving up the second fewest fantasy points to running backs all season. And they've held running backs under 17 points in eight of their last ten. So again, I'm not telling you to bench Warren for some random who knows backup. But if you've got a comparable guy, like another flex running back, that RB2, RB3 range with a better matchup, this is the one where I'm not forcing Warren into my lineup just because of the name that he's been all year. Now for receivers, look, this one's not gonna go over too well, but let's talk about Terry McLaurin, right? So he's only played seven games because of the injuries, but these last seven games he's looked back, quote unquote. He's getting about 15 points per game over his last four. The catch is though, it's very touchdown dependent. So in the games without a touchdown, he's only had eight fantasy points per game. And target share isn't really elite either. He's only getting about six targets a game on the season. Six or fewer in most weeks, and just four targets last game versus the Giants. Washington, I don't know if you notice, Washington's not exactly running the offense through him like prime 2020, Terry. Now, now he gets the Eagles. And I know the Eagles have been what they are all year. Your brain immediately goes, oh, trash secondary, we'll be alright. But as of late, they've actually quietly clamped down. Over the last three weeks, they're only allowing seven total catches to receivers. Zero touchdowns, only 50 yards a game. So I don't know. I mean, look, you're talking Terry, talking about Terry needing a touchdown, needing volume against a unit that's quietly gotten better over the last couple weeks. If you're deep at receiver, this is a spot where the name value and how hot he's been is a discussion that you need to have with yourself. Next on the list, too, is Brian Thomas Jr. versus the Broncos. He might be the single biggest fantasy fields versus fantasy reality guy this year. He was drafted like a top ten receiver, and he's actually sitting around wide receiver 44 on the year. Now the last two weeks have looked better on paper. 12 points a game, 17 with four for 66 and a touchdown. But that second game where he put out those numbers came in a game where Trevor's Trevor Lawrence exploded, had five passing touchdowns, and a total nightmare for the Jets defense, which is just giving up. So now he gets the Broncos, right? A Denver defense that has been legitimately elite all year versus receivers, and they're especially dirty against number one receivers. Over the last month and a half, wide receiver ones are averaging under ten points. Only Nico Collins and Terry McLaurin have gone over that in that stretch. So if your whole Thomas Case is, he was a top 10 draft pick. The talent has to show up eventually. He's due to break out. That's cool, but that's not an argument you want to make in the semifinals in Denver against a secondary that's destroyed number one receivers all year. As far as tight ends, Harold Fanner Jr. is uh the real look, there's no way around it. The rookie has been awesome. He's top three in rookie of the year voting or offensive rookie of the year voting. And over the past month, he's basically been a wide receiver too in your tight end spot. Averages six catches, 61 yards, gets about a touchdown a game, almost 15 points per week. You really can't ask for much more out of a guy you picked up off the waiver wire. But here comes Buffalo. And the Bills are weird. They're terrible against the run. But for some reason, they're absolute death versus tight ends. They're giving up seven fantasy points a game to the position, which is the fewest in the league by like six points. In almost 80% of their games, tight ends are eight points or less, and in 70% of their games, tight ends have three or fewer catches. Even last week, Fanton needed 14 targets just to get 12 fantasy points. So if that target volume regresses at all, which it definitely will, and you slam into the tightest tight end matchup he's seen all year, you're gonna be staring down a nasty four for thirty-eight type game with no touchdown. If you have another viable option at tight end, Kittle, Hawkinson, even maybe one of the streamers that somebody cut because they're out of the playoffs or something. This week is not a must start Harold because he's carried me for. A month situation. When it comes to winning, you gotta be cold-blooded. So that's what I got for fantasy. Semifinals are less about discovering new heroes and more about avoiding the obvious traps. Dak, Jante, Warren, McLaurin, BTJ, Fannin. Again, I'm not saying you have to bench them all, but I would at least pressure test every single one of the options on your bench against their matchup. Now, let's make the anxiety even worse. And let's actually put some money behind where we're at. Rolling the dice with rice, our gambling segment, our pick segment, I should say. Week 16. So last week, week 15, we went 2-3. Not great. We hit on Texas minus 9.5 versus Arizona. Hit on the Jags minus 13.5 versus the Jets. We missed out on the Bills Pats under and the Saints Panthers over. Just it was 17-17. They caught a big play. They were going for a touchdown and they kicked the field goal instead. And for the first time this year, I took the Giants at home getting points against a commanders team, and they they did me wrong. I bet against them all year, they screwed me. I bet with them, they screwed me. So we missed out on Bills Pats, Saints, Panthers, and the Giants plus two and a half. Right now for the season, we're sitting at 34 and 32. Profitable, ugly, but profitable. So let's let's try and clean it up a little bit this week, right? Game one, we're gonna go Packers at Bears, and we're taking Bears plus one and a half. I'm taking the home dog here, man. It's cold, it's outdoors, it's December. This feels like a spot where Chicago has finally earned a little bit of respect, and the Bears run game has actually turned into a real thing. The defense isn't a turnstile anymore either, man. They're making plays. Caleb under Ben Johnson is kind of starting to look like a guy who actually understands when to take the easy stuff, when to take the check downs, when to get the yards. Green Bay, meanwhile, comes in off a bad loss to Denver. They lost Michael Parsons to an ACL. And that's that's not just a pass rush thing either. That's an identity thing. That's like a leader on the team goes down thing. You take away your, oh crap, go make a play guy, and suddenly those third and sevens feel a lot easier for the other team. I think this turns into one of those old school NFC North rock fights. Bears try to shorten the game, they run the ball to keep Jordan Love watching from the sideline. He'll make some plays. He always does. And Green Bay always seems to own the Packers. But I trust the Bears to keep this within a field goal. If not, win it outright. So Kimi Chicago at home, plus one and a half. Game two, Bangles at Dolphins. The official line right now is Bangles minus four and a half. But I'm telling you right now, I'm gonna buy that down to minus two and a half. Yes, since he just got shut out by Baltimore, and yes, Joe Burrow's comments set everybody on fire. If I'm gonna keep playing, I want to have fun. Crazy things happen every year, and now everybody's trying to sit there and play armchair therapist. And how does he feel? What is he gonna do? Blah, blah, blah, blah. From a pure football standpoint, this is an easy classic bounce back spot for Joe Burrow. Getting shut out, getting in your feelings. Yeah, I guarantee you he's gonna come out here and man up and he's gonna throw for like three touchdowns. Miami is basically done, too. I mean, they're six and eight. They're officially eliminated, and Mike McDaniels is hanging on by a thread. Everybody thought when they fired the GM that Mike McDaniels was going to be right behind him. And he turned him around enough for a little bit to keep him going, but now he turns around and benches Tua for rookie Quinn Ewers. There might be some juice there. The kid could come out slinging, maybe, you know, we'll see. But it's still a rookie making his first real start against a veteran Bengals defense that's hurt how soft they looked all week and all year. You don't think they want to have their moment of welcome to the league, kid? Since he's a mess record-wise, I know. But Burrow is way too proud to put two complete no-shows on the tape back to back. So I think they come in focus, they handle business, and they get out with a win by at least a field goal. So I'm buying it down to two and a half, and we're gonna roll with the Tiger Stripes, with the Bengals. Right? Okay, game three on the card, Raiders at Texans. This is gross. I don't care. I'm doing it again. Last week, we took them, Houston laid a big number and covered, and I think we're staring at the exact same movie just with different uniforms. The Raiders are awful. Like, worst offensive line in the league by a mile. Awful. And they're walking into a matchup against a Texans defensive front that's young, deep, hungry, and playing mean. This is one of those games where I can honest to God genuinely see the Raiders having 17 minutes of possession time. Half of that is like three an ounce. Houston gets up early, they turn the pass rush loose, maybe even score on defense or special teams, and then they just keep adding on. The backdoor is always live for a number like this, but I think the mismatch in the trenches is just so wide that the Raiders never really hang around at all. So I'm gonna lay the big one. Give me Texans minus 14 and a half. If you don't feel comfortable, go 13 and a half just for the two scores, but I think you're totally fine. For the locals, game four, Jets at Saints. This is this this one is pure hold your nose and click submit, but give me the Jets plus four and a half. Who cares, right? Both teams are bad. Both teams kind of feel like they've mentally packed it in for the offseason. But this line is basically saying to you that the Saints are clearly better than the Jets. And I'm not really sure that they are. New Orleans is playing better, sure. But they're still not a team I trust to blow anybody out or win by a touchdown. And on the Jets side, you know, as ugly as it's been, you could get a little spark from Brady Cook starting again. Another one under his belt, maybe he sees things a little bit better. You could get a little emotional response on the defense with Wilkes gone and guys worrying about who's gonna get blamed next now. Look, do I trust the Jets to win? No, not really. Do I trust them to lose by a field goal in the most painful way possible? 100%. Some 65 yarder from a kid that's never hit a 40 yarder in his life. But if that's the case, I'll take the points and the misery at the same time. Give me Jets plus four and a half. Game five, Vikings at Giants. And I went I went back to the well with the Giants last week and they burned me. And you know what? I'm still coming back. I just, I don't know. This is one of those games the Giants win and the fans freak out because it messed up their draft position. They're sitting at 2-12, but they're in basically every game. They get drops, they get weird penalties, they get a bad turnover, and then the whole thing falls apart. But Jackson Dart has shown that he can play. He can actually play in this league. Just the details around him are a mess. Minnesota, on the other hand, they're officially eliminated. They were eliminated last week. So now it's that we're playing for 2026 tape phase. So some guys are gonna play hard, but McCarthy is still learning, they're still figuring out how to get Jefferson the ball consistently, which is astounding to me. That creates volatility. I think this is another tight one. Two young quarterbacks, two flawed rosters. Giants team that just feels destined to win just enough late to wreck their draft position. You know? So I'm not only taking the points, I'm gonna buy it up. The official line is Giants plus two and a half, but we're gonna move it up to three and a half just to cover the inevitable lose by a field goal scenario. So that's it. That's the slate. Bears plus one and a half, Bengals minus two and a half. We bought it down. Texans minus 14.5, Jets plus four and a half, and Giants plus three and a half. We bought that up from two and a half. Last week, two and three, season 34 and 32. We're in the black, but barely. So time to either build a little cushion before the playoffs or go down swinging with the home dogs and the backup quarterbacks, right? Who cares? So now that that's said from here, we're gonna pivot into the NBA. We're gonna talk some Knicks, the NBA Cup, and honestly, why hanging, not hanging the banner became way more of a thing than it needed to be. And I'll give you my way on how to fix this whole tournament for the fans and the teams. Keep it right here, Hardwood next. Let's slide on over to the NBA for a second because the Knicks just did a very Knicks thing in the most non-Knicks way possible. They actually won something and then immediately got caught in an argument about whether it counts or not. So the Knicks, the Knicks take the NBA Cup in Vegas. 124, 113 over Wemby and the Spurs. OG drops 28, Brunson gives you 25, walks away with the cup MVP. Big Cat hobbles his way to 16 and 11 on a bad calf, and Mitchell Robinson grabs 15 boards in 18 minutes, including 10 offensive rebounds against the best rebounding team in the West. 10. That's not rebounding, that's shoplifting. They absolutely mauled San Antonio on the glass. 59-42 overall, 56-44 in the paint. That's the game right there. The Spurs led basically all night, and then the Knicks did the most Villanova Knicks thing ever. They just kind of squeezed the game to death in the second half. The bench shows up huge. Jordan Clarkson hits back to back threes to flip the lead. And then Tyler Koelick comes in, shows, I'm the uh the stereotypical pain in the ass white boy point point guard that every team needs to win a championship, and he runs a real offense like he's been in the league for 10 years. Mitch just lived in the restricted area the whole night. That's exactly how you go on a 13-1 run, flip a 10-point deficit, and then never trail again the rest of the game. And the crazy thing is, this wasn't some cute November one-off thing. I mean, the cup has been around a couple years now. Every team that's made the final has turned around and made the playoffs. The Pacers use it to springboard into the East Finals. OKC won the whole league the year after. I mean, there's a pattern there. Mike Brown in the postgame basically said it out loud. He said, This is the manufactured pressure that you want. Single elimination, money on the line, one game in Vegas with the whole league watching. It's not the playoffs, but it's the reps. Brunson, being the leader that he is, even made a point during his MVP Cup award thing to shout out the role guys. Clarkson, Koelick, Robinson. Because those are the guys who are going to matter in real playoff rounds when the whistle gets tight and it's your eighth man deciding if you're going to win a game in May or not. Now, what happens? Instead of just enjoying that for five minutes, we immediately pivot into the most NYX conversation ever. Do we hang a banner or not? Mike Brown was all about it. Mike Brown's out there right after the win, basically picturing it with his name up there. Quote, we get to hang a banner in MSG, the most iconic arena in the league, yada, yada, yada. You can tell in his head that he was already, he already saw it getting raised up next to 73. And then not even 12 hours later, the report comes out and it's like, yeah, we're we're uh we're actually not hanging anything. I mean, the Lakers hang a cup banner, the Bucs hang a cup banner, the Knicks finally win something in my lifetime that isn't a first round gentleman's exit, and they go, nah, we're good. Which it's it's gonna go up regardless. Do you think in any form of this universe that the league is not gonna contact Madison Square Garden and Jim Dolan and say, hey man, we're trying to promote this thing. You're a big market, you have to raise this banner. Like, there's no way that they don't put this banner up. Anyway, you got three camps of fans when it comes to this tournament. You got one side screaming it's a fugazi tournament, it doesn't count, who cares? Why are we even bothering with this? And then you had the other side wanting a full canyon parade, which is also silly. The real side, the rational side, is can we just enjoy being good at basketball for like five minutes? Remember where we came from, remember the lineups, the starting fives that we watched? And that's I'm firmly in that camp. That's exactly where I am. Look, if you're calling the cup fake at this point, you're kind of just being dumb. You're kind of just not allowing yourself to be in the moment. Look, is it a Larry O'Brien? No, of course not. But is it more meaningful than a random Tuesday in Charlotte in January? Yeah, absolutely it is. You put players in a single elimination environment, you put half a million dollars on the line, winners get 500k each, and you tell me you're not playing harder, you tell me the guys aren't going to lace up a little tighter? You watch that game. That didn't look like a Thursday in Orlando. That looked like something, something cool, something good. Now, could the NBA make it even better? 100%. Look, for the players, the money, the money's already there. They're already incentivized, they already get their kick. But the problem isn't the players, the problem is the fans. So if you really want the fans to buy in, you need to make it exclusive. You need to make it something that only you as a fan of the supporting team get. And you you kind of need to make it matter to the GMs for roster building, for the league to roster build, too. So here's how I would here's how I would fix it, right? I say you open up an online registration right before the final, right before the semis, maybe the quarters, right? When your team makes it to the next round. And let's call it maybe the first 30,000, 40,000, 50,000, whatever. You go on, you sign up, and you get access to a numbered NBA cup hat or t-shirt if your team wins. You know, people nowadays are obsessed with pulling Pokemon cards and this, that, and the other, and it's a one of one or a one of a hundred or whatever. If I got a 2,000 out of 50,000 t-shirt, at least I know I'm one of 50,000. You know, I was there for the first Knicks Cup. And then for the team, I this might sound a little outlandish, but I say you give the winner a 1 to 2% salary cap bump for the following year. That's not it. It's not enough to break the league, right? You're not getting a 10% bump. But 1-2% is not nothing either. It's definitely enough to actually help. Enough for a team that's like flirting with that second apron to keep one of their glue guys instead of dumping them off. All of a sudden, the cup, the cup isn't just some cool little mid-season thing that we get to go to Vegas for. It's more of like, hey, if we win this, it might be the difference between keeping our six man or not. And that's exactly how you get coaches, front offices, and fan bases all pulling in the same direction. And if you're the Knicks, I mean, tell me you wouldn't love to see this front office get a little extra cap space to play with this summer, especially with Giannis looming in the background, floating around. There's another little funny wrinkle to this too. Mikhail Bridges, look, we all know he's the Iron Man, right? He plays all 82 every year. He doesn't believe in load management. He's basically the uh anti-Kawhi Leonard. But because the cup final technically doesn't count towards the regular season record, he might actually end up being the first guy to play 83 games in a year and not have it count, though. Only the Knicks could win a title that doesn't show up in the standings and then have an Iron Man record that's also not gonna show up in the standings. It's it's actually it's beautiful, to be honest with you. Now, on the other side of it, I do have to give the Spurs a quick nod because they're gonna be a problem for a long time if they stick together here. I mean, you saw flashes in that game. Dylan Harper drops 21 off the bench. Wemby was kind of hurt, kind of not. Still goes for 18 and 16, and he looked annoyed he couldn't do more, to be honest with you. Stefan Castle's out here flirting with a triple-double in an elimination game. And that's kind of still with them all figuring out roles, still trying to integrate guys. And actually also dealing with real life stuff. Wemby literally found out that his grandmother died the day of the game. Goes out emotional, he still battles. This this tournament seems silly at first to the players, but I'd be willing to bet that in the next couple years, a lot of these players, especially the younger guys, are going to start to buy into it. Because really, think about it. Their whole basketball lives, their whole basketball career, they've been doing what? They've been playing in AAU tournies and college invitations and March Madness winner-go-home style events. So now instead of the grind of 82 games, they get guys to relive the days of old a little bit. Buy into the single elimination, winner, win or go home kind of stuff. And as for the Spurs, Kelden Johnson said it perfectly. This is the first time in a while that they've been expected to win stuff, and they lost. So losing actually stings in a new way. That's how you know the culture has turned. Not that they've ever really had a culture problem with pop, but it is a new era. It's a new generation. So now they get to take that Vegas environment, that big stage, neutral floor, everyone watching, and plug it into an actual playoff push this year. And I just want to circle back to the big picture in the NBA. The NBA is kind of in this weird in-between spot. We got that note from Adam Silver that 2026 is when they're finally going to make a decision on expansion, whether it be Seattle, Vegas, or a mystery market. But he basically said we're doing the homework and we're talking to owners right now, and we're going to pull the trigger in 26 if the math works. But at the same time, they're reporting that the NBA Cup might be moving out of Vegas as a neutral site. The semifinals and the finals have done their job in terms of TV and hype, but you can see the empty seats. I mean, the game literally didn't sell out, and it wasn't because of the markets in the finals. Both are big market teams. There is just too much to do in Vegas. You can feel the energy difference compared to those quarterfinals in home arenas. So, on one hand, Vegas has quite Become the 31st NBA City, quote unquote. Summer League, NBA Cup, all the stuff the league does out there. But on the other hand, the actual cup games there sometimes feel like you're watching a Wednesday night neutral floor college tournament, which is why the league is talking about shifting it. Maybe turning the final into another home market event instead of just plopping it in the desert every year. So on the whole, you got Knicks winning a real-ish thing and then pretending like they didn't. You got fans screaming fugazi at a tournament that clearly does make the players play harder than a normal regular season week. And you got a commissioner lining up expansion in the background while quietly admitting that, yeah, the Vegas neutral thing isn't quite exactly hitting as the way we hoped it would. And to me, this fits kind of right exactly into what we've been talking about all episode. That December doesn't matter until it actually 100% does matter. The Knicks just banked pressure reps. A trophy, a little psychological edge in a conference that's wide open. And the Spurs just got their kids real reps in a big game environment. And then the league just got a better read on what works and what doesn't. Where to take this thing next, whether that's a new city or new cup rules or whatever. They're figuring it out. So we'll see how it goes. I'm excited to see it regardless. I think the cup could actually work. So from here, we're gonna keep the same energy and we're gonna slide into baseball. Because the Mets are in the exact same emotional space. You understand the plan, you see the logic, you get it, but it still hurts. It still hurts watching your guys hold up a different team's jersey saying, uh, this is where I want it to be. Diamond talk next. To quote the great Joe Beningo, oh the pain, bro. Let's talk pain because that's basically what this MLB Mets heavy centric segment is gonna be. A therapy session disguised as some baseball analysis. We woke up one day and suddenly the core that we've been talking ourselves into for years is just gone. Edwin Diaz and Dodger Blue, Pete Alonzo in Orioles Orange, which looks gross by the way, and Brandon Nemo in a Rangers jersey. We're sitting here with a Polanco press release and a Luke Weaver deal, just trying to convince ourselves it's all part of the plan. And unfortunately, the annoying part is it is part of the plan. But that doesn't mean that it doesn't sting, you know? Let's start with Edwin because that one feels the most personal, I guess. He had offers on the table. Dodgers, three years, and then they bumped it up to 69 million with a$9 million bonus, and they deferred$13.5 over 10 years, plus a conditional option. Okay. Braves, they offered him five years, but still wouldn't meet him at what he wanted for a real AAV, so they were out. So the Mets come in this winter. And they're like, look, we want you back, but we want you on our structure. First offer, three years, 66 million, with 21 million deferred over 10 years. Then they come he comes back, they tweak it, they add the 9 million signing bonus to match a Dodgers, but they spread the same 21 million deferral over 15 years. On paper, that looks close, but in reality it's not. And Diaz basically said, I want at least 20 million a year in a real value and less funny money stretched to 2040. Mets Mets drew their line in the sand. Dodgers said, Cool, we'll be your bank. Come on down. So, yes, he was annoyed that they didn't even loop him in before locking in Devin Williams. And yeah, he still waited for the Mets to come correct. And yeah, they didn't, and he bounced. But to be fair, I mean, Diaz, you opted out, so you're a free agent. So why do I have to discuss with you what plans I want to make? You're not currently part of the team. I don't know. From a cold-blooded, cold-blooded front office standpoint, I get it. Relievers are very volatile, right? Diaz is 32. You already backed up the truck once for him, but from a fan standpoint, you just watched Timmy Trumpets walk out of the door after he literally said he wanted to be here. What? Because ownership got cute with deferrals. And he went to, you know, a hated rival that knocked you out of the NLCS. So both things can be true. Speaking of Dodgers, since we're here, let's zoom out on this uh Dodgers deferral money thing because it ties right into that story. They now owe just over$1 billion with a B billion dollars in deferred money to nine different dudes, stretched all the way to 2047. Otani's the big one, obviously,$680 million from 2034 to 2043. That's a joke, right? Mookie Betts is owed$150 million in salaries plus a$5 million bonus chunks into the 2030s. You got Freeman, Snell, Smith, Teosker, Tommy Edmund, Tanner Scott, and now Edwin Diaz all have money kicked way, way down the road. You read that as a fan and you go, how is this even how is this even allowed? And like the other question I ask is what happens if the Guggenheim collection wakes up one day and says, eh, we're done. We're good, or we're bankrupt. Well, unfortunately, the boring answer to that is MLB contracts are guaranteed, right? If an owner bails or a team ever truly went underwater, those obligations become part of the saleslash bankruptcy stew. So the new owner basically buys the club and the IOUs, right? It's like buying a business in debt. Also, the league absolutely does not want sorry shohei, the checks are bouncing to happen. So they would force a sale before they ever ever let anything get that bad. But it's still, you know, Jesus Christ. Anyway, from a player perspective, you're mostly safe, but from a league health perspective, the Dodgers are basically acting like a long-term annuity company at this point. They they created this giant ghost payroll that only exists on a spreadsheet until it doesn't. And that's the contrast. The Mets clearly don't want to live in that world. They drew the line in the sand on Diaz's deferrals and structure, and in the process, they watched him join a team that absolutely does not care about any of that. Next up, you got Pete. Five years, 155 million from the Orioles. And then it came out that the Mets didn't even make a formal offer because that number was just so far beyond what they valued him at. Again, on a spreadsheet, you can talk yourself into it. A slugging first baseman, entering his 30s with defensive limitations, swing and miss, etc. etc. etc. Right. You could argue you're buying declining years at a premium and blocking flexibility with Soto and future free agents and kids coming up. Fine. But this is where the human side kicks in, right? He's the franchise home run leader over Daryl Strawberry. He legitimately embraced the city and the fan base. He was our lovable idiot. And he's one of the faces of that 2022, 2023, this might actually be something season. And now, now where is he? Now he's going to hit in the middle of the Baltimore lineup with Gunner and Adley. And we we have to pretend that Jorge Polanco at first base doesn't feel like putting a band-aid on a bullet wound, right? You can understand the logic and still want to vomit when you see him in black and orange. Both things live in the same brain. So when you put it all together, Nimo traded for Simeon, Diaz gone, Alonzo gone, Tyler Roger walks, Williams is in, Weaver is in, and the picture that David Stearns is trying to paint is starting to get pretty clear. He basically looked at the whole group and said, Yep, that was a fun run in 24. That was a brutal collapse in 25. Two postseason series wins in seven years. This core is not good enough. We're just not running it back because you guys bought the jerseys. Sorry, it is what it is. So he's keeping Lindor and Soto as the pillars. There was some smoke talk about Lindor possibly getting moved. I don't think that's his contract's too big and Lindor is a staple in this town. Steve Cohn would never let it. Stearns is going to be rebuilding the rotation and bullpen on the fly. They're refusing to tack on dumb years or crazy deferrals just to keep the band together. And they're going to lean on a farm system that's finally not a complete joke. That's the plan. That's why there's a bunch of rumors about the Mets signing smaller term arms like Frambert Valdez or looking for trade targets for Freddie Peralta or McKenzie Gore or Nick Pavetta. And I guess the dream scenario is selling the farm for Therese Goobel and handing him the ball on opening day, but Dodgers, excuse me, Detroit really. He's on the market, but he seems like his price is ridiculous. And then you got the lineup side now. There's a lot of strong chatter about Cody Bellinger because of the versatility. He could play center, he could play the corner outfields, he could play first. Okay, fine. You got the pipe dreams like Kyle Tucker or Alex Bregman, which I would really like Alex Bregman. And then you got the more sternsey options like trading for a guy in Jared Duran or something of that mold, like a younger, under control, athletic, not yet paid kind of guy. And the national folks are basically split down the middle. Some of them are saying the Mets have the money and the prospects. This is the time to be aggressive and to bully the market. Cohen knows a thing or two about that. But the other half are like, look, if you're not going to pay your own stars and you're not going to trade the top kids, you're walking a tightrope of half measures. You're walking a very fine line with very minimal room for failure. And as a Met fan, you feel that tension. It's like, what are we doing? Are we reloading? Are we doing the Brewer's thing in Queens with a nicer coat of paint? I mean, we're we have the money. We don't have to be cheap. Quick nod to the moves that they have made. Devin Williams is in his closer, which I mentioned before, which he was the best closer in baseball until he came to the Yankees. So we'll see. And then they bring in Luke Weaver on a two-year,$22 million deal as like the multi-inning bridge kind of guy, like the setup man. And Weaver's kind of interesting. Look, as a Yankee, he was basically two completely different pitchers. Before he got hurt with the hamstring, he had a 1-5 ERA, 1-05 ERA, excuse me, in 24 games. Like he looked nasty. His changeup was disgusting. But after the hamstring, he started tipping his pitches a little bit. He had a 5-3-1 ERA. That's a brutal, brutal ERA. That's a brutal fall off. So again, relievers are volatile, right? You're betting you can get him back to that early 24 version and let him and Williams eat in the 7th, 8th, 9th. Okay, shorten the game. And of course, of course, as soon as the Mets sign any ex-Yankee, every single Yankee fan becomes a cap guru and a pitching coach and enjoy our trash, bro. Like, yeah, we got rid of him for a reason. Meanwhile, there have been plenty of Yankee signings that were former Mets over the years. I mean, everybody just shrugs like it doesn't matter. Like you guys want to make fun of the Mets about it, whatever. This pipeline is a two-way traffic street, and it has been. I mean, does Marcus Stroman ring a bell to anybody? I think you guys are still paying him. Look, and honestly, Yankee fans don't really have the high ground to sit on and yell down at us either right now. They have been weirdly quiet this offseason. And there is a ton of smoke coming out of the camp that they really want to stay under some internal number around the$300 million range, and they don't, they're like right on the edge of that. They don't really have the money to pay anybody. And on top of it, you've already watched Williams and Weaver walk over to Queens. So if I were a Yankee fan, I don't know, man, I'd be chewing my fingers down a little bit. Both New York teams are in that same weird place that like we have money, we have expectations, but we also seem kind of scared for the next big leap. That's not how New York teams are supposed to operate. So where does that leave us, right? Where where are we? Well, for me, the met spot right now is is this, right? I understand almost everything that's happened. I mean, I can sit here and walk through the logic for Nemo, for Diaz, for Alonzo. I I can see the vision. Uh get younger, get more flexible, rebuild the rotation. Don't be don't be the team paying a 37-year-old slugger$30 million just because they were fun when they were 29, right? But none of that makes it feel any better when one of your favorite players is introduced at another team's press conference. And in New York, there is a clock on quote, just trust me. You know? Look, if Cerns follows this up with like a legit top of the rotation guy or two, like a real bat in the outfield, or even at first, or DH or whatever, and like a serious bullpen piece to back behind Williams, then fine. In six months, when we look back at it and say, okay, yeah, that hurt, but he was right. This is a better baseball team with like a higher ceiling, we're gonna do better. Fine. I'll, you know, I'll be happy about it. But if he doesn't, man, if we roll into 2026 with, hey, Devin Williams is pretty good, he's gonna bounce back, and we're gonna hope that the kids mash as like the big overall overarching plan. This town is gonna turn on him so fast. It'll make the Scherzer trade look like a Hallmark movie. It'll look like Frankenstein getting chased like uh Barney. Okay. The same boy genius tag becomes an overthinking nerd who let the heart of the team walk away for nothing overnight. So, yeah. Right now, I'm in that messy metal. Okay, my head gets it. I understand it. My heart hates it, can't stand it. Really upsetting when I look at my Alonzo jersey. And my eyes, well, my eyes are on whatever the next move is. And make sure it's a big one. You need a big splash here, Stearns. Since we're talking about futures and lottery tickets and signings and all that, I think it's a perfect time to swing over to college football. Because there are a couple quarterbacks that are about to play some playoff games that might change where they get drafted entirely. Or even if they come out at all. Episode's running a little long. We'll hit college football quick and then we'll get you out of here with the outro. Keep it right here. Okay, let's uh let's land this thing with some college football for a few minutes here. Because college football right now is basically one giant quarterback job fair. The playoff starts, and every throw is going to be watched by NFL front offices like it's your favorite TV show of all time. You got Indiana sitting there as the number one seed. Kurt Signetti wins back-to-back AP coach of the year titles. They go 13-0, first Big Ten title since 1967. Jesus Christ. They were legitimately the losingest program in major college football like five minutes ago. And now they got a Heisman winner, A B player of the year, Fernando Mendoza, and they're a top seed in the 12-team playoff. What a flip the script moment. That's insane. And for me, Mendoza is QB1 until somebody rips it away from him. I'm already all in on the Mendoza to the Jet Street scenario. You guys know that if you've been listening. But this playoff is where that stuff actually moves around. Look, if he runs the table, if he wins a natty as the number one seed and looks the part doing it, that's the kind of thing that locks you in the front office. You don't just see the stats. You see the dude handling the pressure on the biggest stage. But on the flip side, this is where some of the other guys can make life a little complicated. You look at Moore out of Oregon and Simpson at Bama. In this bracket, if one of those guys goes on a heater for three or four games in a row against some elite defenses and some elite coaching, that's exactly how you go from eh, maybe late first if I come out, to, oh, this guy's uh this guy's pushing Mendoza for a top five slot here. And that's really what this whole 12-team playoff does. It gives quarterbacks more chances to change the conversation, right? You ball out in December and January now, and you're not just winning a ring, you're you're printing money. You get your big contract, you get to the show. But on the other side of it, you got guys like Arch Manning saying, nah, I'm good, I'm coming back. And Lenore Sellers and like, you know, all those guys. I mean, they he could have easily declared a redshirt sophomore, putting up some real numbers. It looked ugly to start, but he figured it out and he pushed Texas into a playoff conversation. Meanwhile, his dad's literally texting the ESB man like Archie's playing, Archie's playing football Texas next year. I mean, Sark basically said it out loud. He pulled the old uh uh Pete Carroll, Mark Sanchez. Yeah, yeah, another year helps him physically, mentally, maturity-wise, and you know, we got some unfinished business, yada, yada, yada, basically forcing his hand. But I kind of actually love that. I mean, not every kid needs to sprint to the draft just because they technically can. And I not that he needs it, not that Manning needs any money, but with NIL money now, you can stay, you can develop, you can chase an SEC title, you can chase a national title, you can come out more polished, more ready. Like, you just be ready to go once you hit the pro time. Now, your age will affect your contract later, but you know, it's a double edged sword. That ties into what I was saying on the NFL side about tanking. It's all a lottery ticket. There is no magic ear where you have to be bad to get the guy. Tua was literally the tank for Tua probably. Poster child. And now he's benched in Miami five years later. Meanwhile, a kid like Mendoza, who nobody has been chanting slogans about for the last three years, rides Indiana from rock bottom to number one and becomes the prize. It's all just darts at a dartboard, guys. The other angle here, you got Dylan Rayola, a former five-star golden child, and he flips from Georgia to Nebraska to follow the family legacy, right? Awesome, great story. Starts early, puts up almost 4,800 passing yards across two seasons, but then snaps his fibula. And Nebraska fires his uncle off the staff, his little brother decommits. Now he's hitting the portal, looking for a place that he can quote best harness his potential. That's a wild sentence for a kid who was literally supposed to be the safest thing in this class. And again, it's all environment. Same arm, same frame, same talent, but a different offensive line, a different play caller, different program stability. All of a sudden we're talking about him needing to reset instead of a statue in his hands to come Heisman time. So when you zoom out on this whole playoff picture, you've got Mendoza trying to submit himself as the guy. You've got a couple other quarterbacks with a chance to steal some shine from him if they go on a run. And then you got big names like Arch choosing development over the quick bag. And for all these kids who are still thinking about declaring, this is the stage that makes the decision for them. If you're on the fence and then all of a sudden you go into this 12-team playoff and you light up two or three top ten defenses and you have some big games, your team makes a big run. I got news for you, kid. You're not going back to class, you're going to the green room. So, yeah, look, we'll we're gonna keep an eye on the scores and the matchups and all that, but I'm really watching this thing like it's a four-week quarterback stock market. Mendoza trying to hold on to the number one spot, and everybody else is trying to flip their draft board from maybe to I can't pass on him. And selfishly, I admit I am watching this through a New York lens too, because if one of these kids ends up in green and white and does the damn thing, or even you know, becomes so good, and the Giants have the first overall pick and they can trade out of it and bails the Giants out of you know miserable football, we're all gonna go looking back to these playoff games and say, yeah, this is exactly where it started. Alright, that's it. I told you I'd keep the college football quick. Episodes running long. Thanks for sticking around. Let's drop the outro and get you out of here. Well, I think that's as good as a place as any to land this one. We kinda kinda bounced all over the map today, but it all circled back to the same idea. Everybody thinks they can game the future, and nobody's actually in control of it. You got Jets and Giant fan bases arguing over draft position, like that's some kind of magic cheat code. And meanwhile, both fan bases that sucked for luck and tanked for Tua are in QB Hell yet again. It's all lottery ticket, guys. You just hope one of them turns out to be a stud and not another. Hey, remember that guy on that list of failed quarterbacks? We watched the Bills come back on the Pats. Miles Garrett is chasing history, Mahomes going down, and Burrow getting asked if he even wants to be in Cincinnati anymore. The windows in the NFL are just way shorter and way weirder than anybody wants to admit. Fantasy Samis this week, if you're still in, rolling the dice with rice, same deal. You make the best read you can, man, and you live with it. Sometimes the landmine goes off anyway. It is what it is, right? Knicks win the NBA Cup, don't want to hang the banner. Mets are letting fan favorites walk while they tell you that there is a plan in place. Trust us. All while the Dodgers stack deferred money to the moon, and the Yankees are doing their best pirates impression that don't want to go over$300 million payroll. It's all just different versions of the same thing. You can't skip the uncertainty. You just gotta decide who you're gonna trust while you ride it out. So thanks for hanging out with me through all the chaos. There's lots of sports going on right now. I know the episode ran a little long, but I've got plenty to say about everything going on. If you enjoyed the episode, please share it with a friend. Hit follow, jump in on the Wednesday mic checks on Instagram, DM me your takes, your rants, your mailbag questions, anything. I got a lot of followers that'll attest to I answer everybody, and I actually have a real solid conversation back and forth with you. All of it can be found at Rice on the Radio on Instagram, on Twitter, on TikTok, whatever. It's at Rice on the Radio. And as always, we close the show with a reminder to spread good energy in this world. It costs nothing to be nice to someone for three minutes of your day. And make sure you tell someone you love them. This has been episode 44 of Rice on the Mics. I am your host, Ian Rice, and I'll talk to you next week, just in time for the Christmas episode. Cheers, guys.