Fantasy First, Futures After

In this mini episode of Rice on the Mics, Ian dives into two of the best parts of this time of year: fantasy baseball draft season and the season-long betting board. First, he breaks down his “perfect fantasy draft” philosophy — how to build a balanced roster, when to attack pitching, why he values closers a little more than some people do, and a few players he keeps circling as draft targets. Then he closes things out with a baseball edition of Rolling the Dice with Rice, going through team win totals, futures, and player props he likes heading into the season. A fun, quick preseason baseball check-in before Opening Day gets here.

Transcript

Draft A Plan Not Vibes

Early Rounds Blueprint

Catcher Timing And Bench Strategy

Boring Players Win Leagues

Futures Board And Win Totals

Player Props That Make Sense

Final Picks And Schedule Note

SPEAKER_00 0:18

Well, hello there. Welcome. What is the first real sign a baseball season is here? Is it opening day? Is it the first overreaction to a box score or a manager's decision? Or is it when the group chat starts turning into a war room and everybody suddenly is the greatest fantasy draft expert of all time? That's when I know. As soon as people start saying, nah, this is this is the year, I'm doing it different. Or trust me, bro, he's asleep or I'm trying to get my guy. Now we're here. Now baseball is back. That's why I want to do a quick little mini episode on it. Because this is one of my favorite parts of the year. You got fantasy drafts popping up, season-long win totals sitting there, player props sitting there, and everybody's trying to convince themselves that they see the board clearly before the game start humbling people. So that's where I'm at with this one this week. Little quick mini episode. Firstly, I want to talk some fantasy baseball. And not in the lazy here's 10 sleepers, here's five busts. You know. No, I'm actually gonna break down how to build a team. If I'm walking into a draft tonight, what makes sense, what sounds smart, but usually gets people in trouble, where I think you can be aggressive, all of that. And then once we do that, we'll close it out with a little roll in the dice with rice segment. I've got season-long picks, I've got some player props, I got some team total wins, nothing crazy. Maybe a couple little fun sprinkles in here and there, too, just to get just enough to get the board moving. But yeah, that's the vibe today. Little baseball mini, little fantasy talk, little futures talk. Get in, get out, keep it clean. Let's do it. Fantasy baseball, man. It's funny. It's funny. Every single year, people walk into that draft room acting like they found religion. And some people did. You know, baseball's back. Some people treat baseball like God. But, you know, somebody's got the spreadsheet, somebody's got the tears, somebody's already telling you, nah, just trust me, man. This is this is the year I'm not reaching, I promise. And then six picks later, they are absolutely reaching, just calling it conviction. That's why, for me at least, fantasy baseball is way less about having the prettiest list of names and more about having an actual plan. You know, everybody's got rankings. Cool. So does everybody else. So does Yahoo. So does ESPN. Everybody. What I care about is roster construction. What am I trying to leave the room with? What kind of team am I actually building? That's the part that people lose. They get so caught up in value, and this is my guy, and he wouldn't have made it back to me. And then they look up 10 rounds later, and the roster makes no sense. Too much power, no speed, nice batting average, no pop. Three fun upside pitchers, and not one guy you can actually trust. Two closers, no closers, catcher in the third round. You got emotional. You ruined the draft. Now you gotta live with it for 162 games. So if I'm walking into a fantasy baseball draft this year, I want a blueprint, not a prison sentence. A nice, clean blueprint. So my version of the perfect fantasy draft starts pretty simple. Two hitters. Not a one pitcher, not one hitter, not a closer. I'm not trying to be cute. Give me the two best hitters available. Two bats. That's the first thing I'm trying to lock in. Give me category juice early. Give me power. Give me average. Give me ribbies. Give me runs. There's speed in there too. Even better. I do not want to come out of the first two rounds already trying to make up ground somewhere else. That's how people draft themselves into a corner. You don't win fantasy fantasy baseball in the first two rounds, but you can absolutely make life harder on yourself there. So then once I get to round three, now I'm looking for my ace. That's the pocket that I like at least. And it's it's not because I'm looking for the flashiest name on the board either. I'm not trying to draft a cover athlete. I just want a true starting pitcher one. I want somebody I can actually look at and say, alright, that's my anchor. He's good for 200, 300 strikeouts of a year. That's my dude. And I don't have to spend next month pretending my staff is fine when it clearly isn't. That's why I like the three round three pitching pocket. There's usually some pretty good names available. It lets you get your bats in first and still come away with somebody who, again, you can trust for the season. Round four, now I'm back at offense. And it's usually at the positions that get thin really quick, you know, corner, middle, whatever the room is starting to squeeze a little bit on. This is where you kind of feel out your draft mates. That's where I'm trying to stay ahead of the panic instead of joining in on it. There's another thing people do in fantasy baseball. They panic with the room. All of a sudden that position run starts, everybody starts losing their mind. Oh man, shortstop's going, third base is going, better grab one now. And then they take the player that they didn't even want just to feel safe. That's draft room anxiety. That's not a strategy. Round four is kind of where I want to be the guy that starts the panic for the other people instead of jumping in to the uh panic train, I guess. Right. Uh round five, this is where I know some people are gonna disagree with me a little bit, but it's where I go closer. I said it closer. Yep. I know. Listen, I there's people who wait forever on save, stream the category, who cares? It's just it's one category, we'll figure it out in season, we'll see what guys shake out, play the waiver wire. That's fine, I guess, if you want to do it. But one bad reliever that has potential could ruin four other categories. Could ruin your ERA, your walk, your whips, your strikeouts, all that. If you get the stud, if you get one of the top tier guys, usually helps save those categories. Zero ERA, maybe one walk, strikeouts. You know, that's the sharp move. You don't want to be waking up every morning trying to figure out who got the ninth inning in Pittsburgh at 130 and why some dude on your bench just blew up your ratios. I'm good on that. If you can get one real closer with a stable job and good stuff in that round five area, I'm doing it. Saves matter, strikeouts matter, ratios matter. Getting one of those guys there saves you a lot of nonsense later, trust me. Round six, now's when I go for my starting pitcher two. And at that point, I am trying to leave the first six rounds with two good hitters, my ace, another key bat, one closer, and one second starter that I actually trust. That's good bones for a team. That feels like I'm building something instead of just collecting high-to-level names. Rounds seven through nine, now the draft really starts talking to you. You start feeling it a little bit. You know, you get field in the shoulders, feel it in your bones. This is where you go fill in what your team needs. You know, if you're a little light on speed, go get some stolen bases. If you need some power, go get some guy with a pop. Need a batting average, get somebody with some stability. You know, you don't want five guys on your team that hit 40 home runs and you're hitting 198 on the season. This is also the part of the draft where discipline matters. You know, one manager is building, another manager is just drafting whoever the app says is next. There's a big difference. Around round 10, I'm back in on pitching, so I'm gonna start stacking in starting pitcher three. And this is where I want a guy who kind of can give me some stability or enough upside where like it's worth it. And round 11, I'm gonna go another closer. Same reason before. I know people don't always want to hear that. They want the sexy upside bat, they want that late prospect that's just got called up or gonna start the team. There's something beautiful about not chasing saves all summer like a maniac. And if you can get one elite closer and one pretty damn good closer, you will be thanking me. Okay, you just plug them in at the relief uh the RP spot on your roster and don't ever touch them. Towards these later rounds, round 12. I'm uh I'm gonna take a catcher here. That's the part that people mess up all the time in standard one catcher leagues. Like, I do not need to be the guy taking a catcher super early just so I can brag about it on draft night. Good for you, man. You got the catcher. You know, for my fantasy league for the past seven years, I took Yadimir Molina with the last round pick, and he hit 280 every year. Everybody just never took him. I think in one of my drafts this year, yesterday, I got JT Aurel Moto in like the 14th round. A guy hits 270 every year and he'll run into some. They just extended him. You're you're gonna be you there's plenty of catches to take. Don't be the guy taking Cal Riley in the second round, third round. It's not worth it. Uh yeah, and then from there, you know, once you've built that base, now you can start having some fun. Once you fill out your team and every position is lined up and now you're looking at bench spots. I personally like to just stack pitchers in bench spots because you know you guys aren't gonna go every day. So I try to get as much volume in as I can and just draft a lot of pitchers. Your bet your position players are gonna play. They're gonna play every day. If they have a game, more than likely they're gonna play. You don't, you know, you don't want to be sitting there looking at the roster and going, oh man, I don't know. He's going up against the Grom. Should I not play him? Just play him, man. Just play him. They're gonna, you know, 30% of the time, if you get a hit, you go to the Hall of Fame, right? Just play your guys. Don't worry about other position players. Maybe grab one other guy just to, I don't know, have a little depth or stash a prospect like Connor Griffin out of Pittsburgh. He's probably gonna start a little bit later. But I just rip pitchers off towards the end. But if you do think I'm an idiot, which sure people do, uh, there are some names that I have been circling a little bit just to keep an eye on. Corey Seager might be a good bounce back year, as long as he can stay healthy. Discount exists for a reason, sure, but when he's on the field, the bat is good. And Marcus Simeon's off the team now. There's gonna be a lot to be asked of him in that lineup. We'll see how it works out. Vinny Pascantino, the Italian hero for the Italian team. Not the sexiest name in the world. Part of why people like him. Fantasy baseball is full of people trying to sound smarter than you are in the room. Sometimes the move is just taking the good hitter in the middle of the order and cashing in the RBIs. Andrew Vaughn is a guy too I keep coming back to. You know, post-hype guys are always interesting when the price gets cheap enough. There's a new situation, fresh rolls. He's gonna get every day at bats, not a lot of cost, kind of swing that I'm willing to take. And Max Muncy, too. Max Muncey, look, third base can get weird on you quick. There's like a couple top-tier third basemen, and the rest are a lot of middle of the pack. Muncey's got pop, Muncey's got power, and he's got a big lineup behind him. You know, fantasy titles get won by boring good players, too. Not every pick has to make your draft room gasp and go, oh, the great pick. Joe Ryan on the pitching side, that's the type of arm that if I'm building the staff with some balance, doesn't need to be the flashiest guy in the room, Joe Ryan. I mean, that's the most common name in the world. Just give me somebody who can actually pitch. Keep me out of weekly disasters. Go give me six every time you go. That's that's really the point of the whole draft for me, right? You know, I'm I'm not trying to win the coolest team contest. I'm trying to leave with balance. I'm trying to leave with categories covered. I'm trying to leave with a bullpen that doesn't make me sick and a rotation that actually has some shape to it, and an offense that isn't dependent on three miracle breakouts and a and a good swing. Fantasy baseball is too long to draft cute. And that's really what this comes down to. Don't draft for the screenshot. Don't draft for the applause in the group chat. Draft so when you look at your team after round 12, you can actually see how it wins, how it beats up other teams. Two hitters early, ace in round three, real closer in round five, second one later, wait on catcher and fill in categories. Take your shots later. Trust me, there will be plenty of opportunity to take your shots. That's how I would do it. And if somebody in your draft wants to call it boring, let them. Boring is fine. Boring in April can look real beautiful by August. That's gonna do it for our fantasy baseball. Good luck in your leagues. Hopefully, you bring home a W. If you do, make sure you tell me so I can shout you out on the show. Otherwise, now we're gonna pivot over to a little rolling the dice with rice gambling segment. It's been a while. It's been a while since football has been off and, you know, haven't really had our weekly picks. How about a six-month pick? How about some team futures and some player props? Does that interest you? Baseball picks up nice. Okay, now let's roll the dice. Uh season-long baseball betting is I don't know. It's because it's the time of the year where everybody feels brilliant. Everybody sees a win total they like. Everybody sees one player prop and they swear that the books messed up. You know, the books don't uh lose money too often. You know, the books don't stay rich by being wrong. They're usually pretty close. That being said, there's a couple things that I do like that I think have a good chance here. Uh we're gonna start with Seattle. Seattle is one of the first teams I keep coming back to. I looked over a bunch of the books. 89 and a half for their win title. I like that. That's one of the cleaner team looks on the whole board for me, to be honest with you. And it's not just me liking the number. It's kind of the team where if you like them, there are a few ways to play it. You know, the win total, the division, maybe even a little bigger sprinkle if you really want to plant your flag. But Seattle just feels like one of those teams where the shape of the season makes sense. Division's not the best. There's good pitching, enough structure, enough identity. It's a team I feel comfortable backing. Now, Houston, same division on the other side of that. Astros under 86 and a half. I'm in on that. Feels like one of those years where the name still carries more weight than the actual team does. Guys got a little bit older, they lost some pieces, they lost Frambert Valdez. You know, franchise build up so much credibility that people keep betting the logo for a year too long. Houston under is one of those spots I look at and I go, yeah. I I think the market is still pricing in a version of them. I'm not quite sure as they are anymore. Tampa Bay over, I like that one too. And Miami over, I like that one too. Those are two different versions of the same kind of bet, though. You're not asking either one of them some hundred win monster. You're asking them to be a little bit better than the room expects, which they both have potential to do. You know, Tampa always scouts. There's always some new kid that comes up that they go, where the hell did they find him? And Miami, Miami quietly has been amassing some young, good players. Uh the Mets over 90. Well, listen, we're a Mets fan. Over 90 and a half. Yeah, they're gonna win 95 games this year. Of course the Mets are. Change the whole team, it's gonna look different. Everything's just gonna click. No, I don't know. I'm just being a homer. But I do like the Mets over 90. Uh I might even take them to win the division. Not even just on a homer fan base, just because the Nationals, who knows what's going on with them. The Phillies. Bryce Harper still seems pretty pissed. Atlanta is always either hurt or somebody suspended. And Miami, look, like I said, take the over for their win total, but it's not, you know, they're not making a big noise anytime soon. Also, like the Brewers over, over 84. Milwaukee is kind of one of those teams people never fully buy into. They're always like crushing throughout the season. I go, yeah, but it's Milwaukee. Let me see, let's see if they can do it. Okay, I don't need them to do it in the postseason. I need them to win more than 84 games in the regular season. Now they did lose Freddie Peralta, sure. But the guys that the Mets gave them for Freddie Peralta, they're gonna play good. Okay. Again, not a sexy pick, not a sexy over. It's just a team you can trust to take care of business enough games over 162. On the other side, Angels under 70 and Reds under 80. Padres under 83 and a half might be in that same bucket, too. I don't need it all three if I'm actually building a real card, but if you're gonna throw some futures, some six-month stocks, I don't know. Why not, right? You're not gonna win every one of them. But I don't hate taking a gamble on uh the season long of those teams. You know, they might by the time the Padres go halfway through the season, they might be sellers. Same thing with the Reds. And the Angels, for some reason, they don't know what to do with the deadline. They always buy when they shouldn't, but that's a different story. Some low overs, Cardinals over 69. It's interesting. It's more of like a buy low kind of number. You don't need them to be great. You just need them to be not as bad as the numbers implying. People look at 69 wins and they go, Oh, God, they almost stink. They do, but they're not as bad as they should be. 69 and a half, 70 wins? Cardinals can get 70 wins. Uh there is one future that's a little more off the beaten path here, but you can find it on some books. Giants, San Francisco Giants, that is. Do you think the San Francisco Giants and the New York Giants get together for dinner? Giants to finish second in the division at plus 300. That's that's kind of a that's a kind of a nice ticket, man. That's a good one you want to hold on to. Three to one odds on them to just beat out the Padres, who, like I said, might sell halfway through the year. You're gonna tell me people aren't gonna come knocking it for Mason Miller. You know, not everything has to be a straight over under. Sometimes the fun on the futures board is finding one that makes you sound like you were paying attention the whole time. That's what I'm here to do for you. And lastly, I got a little fun parlay too. Good, good, I mean, every parlay is great until it doesn't happen, but you got the athletics to miss the playoffs, you can check that one off right now. And you got the twins to miss the playoffs, you can check that one off right now. Then you got the Seattle Mariners to make the playoffs and the Tigers to make the playoffs. You put all four of those together, it's plus 194. That's two to one. I don't know. Does that not sound like that's not that's a super easy? How does that not hit? I don't know, whatever. Now, enough with the teams. Let's get into some player props because this is where baseball can really have you acting out of character. The strikeout board is probably the best section to bet. You want to stay away from wins for pitchers, they're they're team relevant, there's no decisions. You stay away from wins. Strikeouts is where you want to be. Plus, at the rate that guys strike out nowadays in this league, it's a smart bet. And Brian Woo is the name that keeps just jumping out. Strikeout leader at 50 to 1, 230 strikeout plus at plus 750. I mean, that's the kind of prop that I like there. I mean, you're betting skill, you're betting stuff, you're betting bat missing ability. I'd rather do that than get caught up in uh the BS with the wins. Trey Yusavage is a fun one too. 180, 190, and 200 plus strikeouts. You know, I know he's gonna start on the uh IL to start the season, but he should come back. He should be able to hit 180, man. He's got nasty stuff. Same thing with Logan Gilbert, 200, 210, 220, ladder that up. Logan Webb is another one at 220, 230 strikeouts. And Jesus Lazardo, little sneaky one here, strikeout leader on the season, 66 to 1. Put 20 bucks on it. You got a nice little payday for, you know, whatever. I mean, 20 bucks. You go to Starbucks for 20 bucks, you know? You go to McDonald's for 20 bucks nowadays. Saves market, uh, same thing. Munoz is saves leader, Devin Williams is a saves leader, Kenley Jansen with 30 plus saves possibly, might be the cleanest one of the group for me. 30 saves is a really nice middle ground. You know, you're not asking for some cartoon season, you're just asking for a proven closer to still be a proven closer. And also Ryan Helsley had a tough break with the Mets last year. 30 plus saves fits in that same kind of area, and you could probably get good numbers on it, to be honest. Uh home runs. This is one that everybody loves. Soto, probably the headliner. I mean, the home run leader. You could probably get him for 50 plus and over 35 and a half. Over 35 and a half should be easy. 50 plus is like the you know, the lottery ticket, I guess. I am also going to take Soto to win MVP this year. I think he's going to win the NL MVP. You know, you can't give it to Otani every goddamn year, right? It's the LeBron James effect. And it would be the first Mets MVP. That one you're allowed to call me a home run, but that's what's happening. I'm taking over 35.5 for Soto, and I'm taking him for the win MVP. Brent Rooker, over 28 for home runs. Mirakami, latest uh Japan power hitter, over 26.5 in a White Sox lineup that is just not great. So he's just gonna try and mash the ball, try and beat the wind. And Tatis, over 30 at plus money. That sounds pretty nice. It's a nice little throw in there. And then let's see, what else do we have on this list here? What else did I write down for you guys? Jaron Duran hits leader, Otani, RBI leader, Josh Naylor, 90 plus Ribbies, James Woods, Tyler Soder Shrimp, Jackson Shario, and those RBI milestone pockets. You can ladder them up around there. Yeah, that's about it though. Those are the good baseball bets, the ones that I came across. I've been scared scouring the uh books for a little bit here for the last couple days. Really trying to give you the best ones that I like. Not flashy, just to be flashy, just good six-month stock option baseball bets, right? So if I'm gonna trim the card down, keeping it simple, just you want the quick hitters, Seattle over, Houston over, Brewers over, Mets over, Miami over, Brian Wu strikeouts, Kenley Jansen 30 plus saves, one soda home runs, Josh Naylor Ribbies. And then yeah, like I said, if you want to have a little bit of fun with it, Giants second in the division, the playoff parlay I gave you, little Trey Savage strikeout stuff, maybe some Miracami power stuff, but that's about it. That's the board. Not every bet has to be a masterpiece, guys. Not every future needs a TED talk either. A few smart plays, a couple fun ones, and enough discipline to not bet the whole league. That's usually the sweet spot. But yeah, that'll do it for rolling the dice with rice. We'll try and get some more throughout the season. Maybe see where we look like the first month here. And uh we'll keep you updated. But for now, opening day around the corner, go Mets. Good luck, Yankees, I guess. Good luck to everybody in the league. Baseball's back. So that's that's the mini. Little fantasy baseball, a little season-long board, a little chance for all of us to feel real smart before baseball starts doing what baseball does, and humbling everybody in Able. Still, this is one of the best parts of the season. Draft rooms heating up, future boards sitting there, everybody planting flags, everybody talking themselves into one guy, one team, one angle, that they swear they can see better than everybody else. That's the fun of it. That's the sickness of it, too. But mostly the fun. For me, biggest thing of all this is just actually have a plan going into draft. In fantasy, you don't draft cute. Build an actual team. And on the betting side, same deal. You don't need action on every single thing with a number next to it just to feel involved. Pick your spots, trust your read, let the season come to you a little bit. Feel it out. One quick programming note before I get you out of here. I will actually be at Mets opening day this Thursday. So the new full episode this week of episode 58 will probably be out on Saturday morning instead of the usual Friday drop. Little schedule switched this week, but it's worth it. Get to see the Mets, get to see the boys. We'll be back with a full one and plenty to get into. Appreciate you guys hanging out for the mini episode. Always fun doing these little pop-in shows when the board starts filling up. Baseball starts getting close enough to taste, man. We're gonna pop some champagne this week. But enjoy the week. Enjoy the start of the season. Enjoy the draft room if you got one coming up. And as always, spread good energy. Tell someone you love them. I'm Ian Rice. I'll catch you guys again.